Policy support needs to be paired with a rebound in liquidity for the crypto market to see a significant surge. Over the weekend, I did a projection of liquidity trends for the year: 1) Liquidity hit a short-term low between August 17-20; 2) Liquidity started to flow back in late August and will continue until early September; 3) Mid-to-late September and late October are two critical liquidity tests, especially late October, which could see the lowest liquidity point of the year; 4) Then, from November to December, reserves will rise again, returning to a relatively abundant state by year-end. Looking at the first three days of this week, the crypto market was sluggish, but as soon as it pushed through the short-term low, it started to rebound. The first driver of last night’s crypto market rally was the rebound in liquidity (even without policy support, a liquidity rebound can strengthen $BTC, though it likely wouldn’t be this strong). The second driver was the SEC’s proposal yesterday for a safe harbor rule for crypto token fundraising, as mentioned here: https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2090227771134095538?s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A. Additionally, Trump hosted a tech leaders’ meeting at the White House last night, filled with crypto market executives, where he reiterated his support for crypto and expressed hope for the passage of clear legislation. From a liquidity perspective, the crypto market should remain decent in the near term. However, caution is advised in mid-to-late September, especially late October, as it could mark the lowest liquidity point of the year. After that, the outlook for the end of the year is more optimistic. Over the past few years, I’ve written several articles about the close relationship between $BTC and U.S. dollar liquidity. They’re all compiled in this long post from March: https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2029816341361025505?s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A. The key takeaway is this: $BTC price trends are closely tied to U.S. dollar net liquidity, and even more so to the balance of commercial bank reserves. The correlation is highly positive.