Today, we will mainly review the market views from the past period and adjust the trading direction for the upcoming time.
I. Review of Rebound Targets
Previously, we mentioned that the target range for this round of upward rebound is likely between 98,000 and 99,000. From the actual trend, the price has already risen above 97,000, which is very close to the potential development area we provided earlier.
In the short term, there may still be room for upward movement, but from a trading perspective, we need to gradually shift our focus to medium- to long-term bearish positions.
II. Core Judgment on Structural Aspects
This round of increase is more inclined towards a short squeeze combined with a rebound, with the core purpose being to break the previous high points and liquidate the accumulated short leveraged positions below.
Once this process is completed, from the daily and weekly structural perspectives, the phase of adjustment is basically over, and there is a higher probability that we will return to the downward trend at the daily and weekly levels.
III. Review of Trends: Overall in Line with Expectations
From the 4-hour level, the entire market trend over the past period has basically followed the path we outlined before the market started.
Before the price moved, we had already conducted probability analysis on possible trends, and the actual market has validated this idea.
IV. Key Significance of the 90,000 Level
90,000 is a very important structural position in this round of market.
On the 3rd of this month, the price completed an effective breakout above 90,000. This position had previously been validated multiple times as a resistance level, and after breaking out, the structural nature changed accordingly. Therefore, after the breakout of 90,000, the first bullish rebound target we provided was 94,000.
During the phase when the price was below 90,000, we maintained a bearish outlook overall, but also clearly pointed out that once 90,000 was effectively broken, we needed to adjust our expectations and look for a rebound to test the previous high point area.
V. Two Expected Paths After 94,000
When the price approached 94,000, we provided two possible trends:
The first possibility is that the price continues to rise directly, targeting 98,000 to 99,000, or even testing the 100,000 level, before entering a downward trend.
The second possibility is that the price tests the previous high points in a volatile upward manner, then retraces to the previous key resistance level of 90,000, turning resistance into support, and after completing the retracement, it embarks on the next stage of upward movement.
From the actual trend, the market is more inclined towards the second path.
VI. Trading Thoughts During the Retracement Phase
When the price retraces to 90,000 and enters a consolidation phase, our view is to use the previous low point as a bullish defense level, allowing for participation in short-term long positions, with a short-term target looking towards 94,000.
After a breakout at 94,000, we further emphasize that attention should be paid to the breakout and retracement structure of the previous high points. After the retracement is completed, one can participate in short-long positions, with a short-term target of 94,000 and a medium-term target of 98,000 to 99,000.
VII. Current Price Position
Yesterday, the price reached a high of over 97,800, with contract prices approaching 97,900, which is very close to the target area of 98,000.
In fact, when the breakout above 90,000 was completed, we clearly pointed out that the bullish targets are divided into two phases: the first phase is 94,000, and the second phase is 98,000 to 99,000. From the current perspective, this phase of increase is nearing its end.
VIII. Focus for the Future: Bearish Layout Thoughts
Considering the current structure, this round of increase has entered its later stage. Bulls are not completely excluded from participation, but only suitable for short-long positions, and strict defense must be maintained, with the defense level set below 94,000, such as around 93,500 or 93,800.
What needs more attention next is the medium- to long-term bearish opportunities, mainly with two thoughts:
The first: Right-side layout
When the price breaks below the 94,000 support, and a clear bearish structure forms on the chart, then consider positioning for medium- to long-term short positions. This method has high confirmation and is relatively stable.
The second: Left-side layout (higher probability)
After the price retraces, it tests the area above 98,000 again, and then begins to decline. Above 98,000, one can consider gradually positioning for shorts without necessarily waiting for a complete right-side signal.
However, it is essential to control the position size, primarily using low leverage and light positions, first establishing a base position, and then gradually increasing the position once the trend is clear.
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