Bitcoin reached a peak of over 96,000 last night, and the overall trend is basically in line with previous expectations.
I. Market Review
Yesterday, we emphasized the nature of this round of correction. The price retraced to the support level of the 90,000 integer mark, which has been mentioned multiple times before.
Therefore, in terms of strategy, the bullish defense level is set at the previous low area, and the overall approach remains focused on establishing long positions at lower levels.
The short-term target is to first focus on 94,000 and observe whether an effective breakthrough occurs at the previous high.
Last night, the price completed a breakout above the previous high, which was a favorable liquidation for the bears.
II. Is it Suitable to Short at High Levels?
After the previous high was broken, it is currently not suitable to directly establish short positions at high levels.
This rise is a continuation of the trend after a significant breakout of key resistance, and there are no clear top signals yet. There is still some room for movement above, and the price may continue to rise.
III. Differences Between Long and Short Cycles
Short-term rises do not change the long-term trend.
From a larger perspective, Bitcoin is still in a bearish structure, with the overall direction remaining bearish. However, on an hourly basis, the rebound has not yet ended, and there may still be space above, although the extent is expected to be limited.
Therefore, judgments and operational strategies under different cycles need to be treated distinctly.
IV. Review of Key Structures
It was previously mentioned that the current structure has a potential bearish flag pattern, which indicates a channel-like rebound after a decline. However, the premise for this pattern to be valid is that the lower edge of the channel and key support must be effectively broken.
Currently, the channel has not broken, and key support has not been breached, so as long as the structure remains intact, we maintain a bullish outlook, and the low long strategy remains unchanged.
V. 90,000 Support Remains Valid
On January 10, it was clearly pointed out that 90,000 is a key support level.
As of now, this level is still in the retracement testing phase and has not formed an effective breakdown; support remains valid, and the expectation towards above 98,000 still exists.
The previous retracement tested the lower support range, which is a healthy adjustment. As long as this range is not broken, the short-term bullish outlook can still be maintained.
VI. Potential Targets for Equidistant Rise
After effectively breaking 90,000, the short-term target is first looking towards 94,000.
If 94,000 is further broken, there is a high probability that the market will form an equidistant rising structure, with the target area roughly around 99,000.
The current trend is not a direct surge but a test of the previous high followed by a retracement, essentially validating the multiple bottom neckline, which is a resistance turning into support.
VII. Follow-up Response Strategy
We are currently in a rising phase after a significant breakout, and the top structure has not yet appeared, making it unsuitable to recklessly short at high levels.
If the market continues to form an equidistant rising structure, the D point area is roughly around 99,000, which is also an important horizontal reference point.
From market behavior, it cannot be ruled out that the price may make a breakout above the 100,000 integer mark. Integer marks are often significant psychological levels in the market, and a breakout may be accompanied by a short squeeze and inducement to go long, creating conditions for subsequent structural adjustments.
VIII. Summary of Views
The overall strategy is as follows:
Long Cycle: Maintain bearish structure judgment
Short Cycle: The rebound has not yet ended; shorting at high levels is not recommended
Operational Strategy: Focus on low longs after a retracement
Only consider establishing short positions on the left side when a clear top reversal structure appears in the short cycle or when the price reaches key resistance areas.
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