The AI foam is going to burst after clearing the position? 1. The market is experiencing an unlimited short rise Although SPY has been rebounding and even reaching new highs, its trading volume has been plummeting. The current daily average trading volume is about 31-32 million, which is even more than 30% lower than those that only open for half a day during Christmas and Thanksgiving, setting a new low in nearly 20 years. The unlimited increase indicates a serious lack of momentum in buying, and the market is extremely fragile. 2. Chip stocks no longer lead the gains The only core engines that have driven the US stock market to soar in the past three years are semiconductor SMH and technology leaders. But this wave of high innovation did not lead the way in the chip sector. Without the core theme, this wave of rise is like a high-rise building without a foundation. 3. The real economy cannot sustain itself The yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds continues to rise, with 30-year yields and mortgage rates approaching 7%, bringing them back to the high levels of the worst inflation period in 2023. The squeeze of high interest rates on the wallets of businesses and ordinary people is very frightening, with significant fundamental risks. 4. Dreams of interest rate cuts shattered The oil price has been fluctuating at a high level of 80-85, and it may break through again and push up inflation at any time. The Federal Reserve is now in a deadlock where employment has reached its limit and inflation cannot be lowered: not only is interest rate cuts completely impossible, but they may even threaten to raise interest rates again at any time. 5. High valuation risk is extremely high Don't hold onto the illusion that any pullback is just a buying opportunity, and go buy overvalued or high-risk targets, such as the current IREN or NVDA worth over 200 yuan. Buying now requires considering the actual valuation and safety margin, blindly chasing high prices is very dangerous. Reduce positions appropriately to lock in profits, do a good job of hedging and defense, and keep enough cash. Don't be the last man to take over.