As I mentioned back in June, on-chain data has now become a well-established analytical tool. It is no longer a niche area used only by a small group of investors. Institutions now actively use on-chain data for investment analysis and research. Today, even Fidelity uses MVRV in its official research, while VanEck incorporates on-chain data as a key component of its capitulation framework. I see this as one of the biggest differences between the current market and the 2022 bear cycle. I have been using on-chain data since 2020. Back then, however, it was still a relatively niche field and had not yet gained the level of acceptance it has today. Even when on-chain indicators suggested that Bitcoin might be approaching the “knee” or the bottom of the cycle, market participants were not confident enough to fully trust those signals. Once price moved beyond what people had expected, fear began to outweigh the data. There was also far less historical data available for comparing multiple cycles. But today, the environment is different. Spot Bitcoin ETF have been approved, and institutional Bitcoin buying and holdings are far more transparent than they were in the past. Many institutions now actively incorporate on-chain data into their official research. At the same time, countless YouTubers and influencers on X use historical on-chain cycle data to analyze the current market. And when looking back at previous cycles, many of those patterns now appear remarkably clear. This is where the biggest difference lies. In the past, on-chain data was still an emerging field, so market participants naturally questioned it. Today, it has become a mainstream analytical tool used by major institutions and well-known market participants. People naturally place greater trust in data when respected institutions and prominent investors are using it. And when current indicators begin to resemble historical patterns, those signals are increasingly interpreted not as something to question, but as evidence that reinforces conviction. That is why genuine fear is much harder to create in the current environment. In the past, if someone had said, based on on-chain data, that “Bitcoin is already approaching the bottom,” many investors would have remained skeptical. Today, more investors are likely to interpret the same situation as “historical data is telling us this is an opportunity.” This is why even if Bitcoin falls below $60,000, I think many investors may initially view it not as a reason for fear, but as another buying opportunity. We have not yet reached the kind of “real fear” that completely breaks the assumptions and expectations investors currently rely on. If anything, there are now more reasons and narratives than ever for investors to keep holding. And there is one thing we should not forget Many of the quantitative indicators we trust today failed to identify the peak of the previous bull cycle in the same way they had in earlier cycles. That does not mean on-chain data is wrong. I still actively use on-chain data myself, and I have even built and launched a data platform around it. But if the market structure and its participants have changed, the way we interpret the data must also remain flexible. On-chain data is a powerful analytical tool. But rather than trusting it blindly, we need to understand why the data is producing those readings within a market structure that has fundamentally changed.(mignolet)