小龙先生
小龙先生|7月 23, 2026 15:35
I just returned to my computer desk from outside and carefully analyzed and judged for my friends: Has the rebound of Bitcoin from 57800 to 66900 come to an end? This rebound from 57800 to 66900 has risen by nearly 9000 points. Some people call for a reversal, while others say it's a dead cat jumping. The disk has been ground around 66K for three days, and the volume has shrunk. The direction needs to be chosen. In terms of benefits: (1) The fifth wave of weekly decline is coming to an end, with the final drop (126000 → 57800) still to come. The five wave correction structure is highly likely to have been completed and is currently in the bottoming stage of rebound, decline, and bottoming out. (2) The ETF has had a net inflow for 6 consecutive days, with a cumulative inflow of approximately $727 million, the longest continuous inflow record since early May. BlackRock IBIT continues to attract funding, and institutional funds have indeed come in. (3) The percentile of MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value Ratio, an on chain valuation indicator that measures the average profitability of the market) has dropped to about 5%, which means that this indicator has been higher than the current level for about 95% of the time in history, usually corresponding to the long-term bottom zone. (4) The negotiations for the CLARITY bill have entered their final stage, with Treasury Secretary Bessent stating a "1-yard line" status. Trump has agreed to include an ethics clause, clearing the biggest obstacle to Senate progress. (5) The support of 65000-65300 has not been broken, and the upward structure has not been disrupted. On chain data shows that support near the current price has begun to exceed resistance, marking the first such shift in several months. Negative aspects: (1) The 4-hour volume can continue to shrink, from 5032 to 1238 within 4 hours, with a decrease of about 75%. There is no increase in volume during the rebound (not shipment), and there is no increase in volume during the rebound (hesitation among bulls); (2) The classic bearish combination pattern of rising wedge-shaped structure and volume price divergence on the daily chart. (3) Before 66900, the high point was blocked, and the high point gradually decreased (66956 → 66740 → 66700), indicating a significant weakening of short-term momentum. (4) The probability of Polymarket passing the CLARITY bill is only 39%, far below the peak of 82% at the beginning of the year. The Democratic Party has not yet signed the final text, and they hope that the state attorney general will participate in the execution, rather than being solely responsible by the Department of Justice. (5) The US Iran conflict continues, oil prices remain above $80, inflation concerns intensify, and geopolitics continue to suppress risk appetite. (6) If 65000 is lost, it will confirm a short-term high of 66900, which may retrace to 64000-64500 or even deeper. Conclusion: The overall structure of the rebound is not yet broken, but in the short term, we need to catch our breath first. 65000-65300 is currently the most critical defense line. Hold on, the rebound is still ongoing, 67500-70800 is still an effective target. Unable to hold on, 66900 is the top of the stage, and stepping back on 64000-64500 is highly likely. The CLARITY Act is the core variable that determines the direction after 67K. The bill has been implemented, and there is a high probability that 67K will break through, turning positive news into negative news and ending the rebound; The bill has been postponed, and the price cannot break through 67K. It peaked at 66.9K, and this rebound has come to an end.
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