In depth analysis of the timing of the release of the CLARITY Act and its impact on BTC price trends ❗ ️ The CLARITY Act is the core variable that determines the end of the Bitcoin rebound. So, when will the results of the CLARITY Act be known? Senate Majority Leader John Thune has made it clear that a vote will be held as early as next week, before the August recess. The specific window period is shown in the following figure 。 Current core checkpoint: Trump has agreed to include an ethics clause that explicitly prohibits the President and federal officials from issuing or sponsoring digital assets during their tenure, with violators being fined up to $250000 per day. But the Democratic Party still opposes it. The question is not whether to ban the president from issuing coins, but who will execute it. The Democratic Party believes that the execution led by the Department of Justice is unreliable and demands that state attorneys general have independent law enforcement powers. The number of votes is still insufficient. The Republican Party has 53 seats and requires at least 7 Democratic defections to cross the 60 vote threshold. Currently, only 2-3 Democratic senators openly support it, and all have attached conditions. Timeline of two outcomes: If the bill is passed (with a probability of about 39%): The Senate will vote on it as early as the week of July 27th, and it will be submitted to the President for signature as early as July 31st August 7th. After Trump signs it, it will officially become law. The market completes pricing before and after the signing of the bill, and benefits are realized; If the bill is postponed/put on hold: The vote could not be completed before the August 7th congressional recess, and the next window may be pushed back to after September. However, with the midterm elections approaching in November, the congressional schedule will become even more tight, and the difficulty of reaching cross party consensus will further increase. Assessment of the impact on BTC: Both scenarios point to the same conclusion: the rebound may be nearing its end. The difference lies only in the path. Scenario 1: The bill is passed (positive news is realized, rebound ends) When the bill is signed and implemented, it is the day when the biggest catalyst for this rebound is exhausted. 67500 may be broken through or even touch 70800, but the rule of "buying expectations and selling facts" will take effect, and the good news will be exhausted, ending the rebound. Scenario 2: Bill Delay/Suspension (Expectations dashed, rebound ends) The probability of Polymarket passing has dropped to about 39%. If the bill fails to advance again, the space above 67K will be sealed off, and 66900 is likely to be the top of this rebound. 67500 cannot go, let alone 70800. My core conclusion: Whether the bill is passed or postponed, this rebound may be nearing its end, with the only difference being whether it ends with "all the good news" or "expectations falling through".