BTC still hasn’t managed to retest $67,000… Yesterday afternoon, I mentioned that $67,000 is the first key resistance level in this rebound. Only by breaking through this level can we start discussing $71,100. Tonight’s drop further confirms this judgment. From a technical perspective, BTC has been oscillating repeatedly in the $65,600–$66,100 range but hasn’t been able to reclaim the short-term moving average. It then broke below $65,500, turning the moving average from support into resistance. Meanwhile, the MACD red bars have expanded again, signaling stronger bearish momentum. At the same time, as the price dropped, OI (open interest) fell in tandem, and net outflows of active funds widened to 325 BTC. This set of signals points more toward long liquidation rather than large-scale short opening: - Price down + OI down = old longs closing positions or getting liquidated; - LSUR > 1 = concentrated funds shorting; - Net outflows = active selling pressure is gaining pricing power. On top of that, macro news hit the market at its most vulnerable moment, pressing the accelerator. At 8:30 PM tonight, U.S. initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped to 187,000, the lowest level since 1969. Meanwhile, Houthi forces attacked a Saudi oil tanker, U.S.-Iran tensions continue to escalate, and transportation in the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted. Brent crude oil has surged past $98. When “rising oil prices push inflation higher” meets “employment remains strong,” the market doesn’t get signals of a soft landing. Instead, it suggests inflation could reignite, leaving the Fed with no reason to rush into easing. The European Central Bank’s pause in rate hikes this time isn’t a pivot to easing either. It’s a wait-and-see approach after June’s rate hike to observe the energy shock, with a September rate hike still on the table. For BTC, this means the timeline for global liquidity improvement may be pushed further back. In other words, geopolitical and macro news have hit a market that failed to break through resistance while concentrated funds are starting to short. Next, we need to closely monitor whether the market can recover: - If BTC fails to quickly reclaim the $65,500–$65,800 range, this zone will turn from support into resistance, and the price is likely to retest $64,000; - If $64,000 is also lost, the $61,010 level from yesterday’s volume profile will become the next key value area. Only by firmly reclaiming $67,000, accompanied by net inflows of funds and healthy growth in price and OI, can BTC hope to challenge $71,100.