In addition to the comparison with the Internet foam, I have seen a group of data comparing the latest large-scale infrastructure shale oil revolution in the United States. Even according to the market's financing capacity after the financial crisis, the bubble blown by AI is still only half way, which is also an interesting observation. The shale oil revolution is also more similar to the situation dominated by Internet foam start-ups. The leading oil oligarchs have pulled CapEx to do infrastructure construction at a loss. In addition, it is also a direct way of producing productivity (extracting oil directly from oil shale, v.s. directly working for white-collar jobs), rather than the natural growth of demand such as the Internet revolution. Shale Oil Revolution (2008-2015) Industry general ledger from IHS, Rystad, SEI, etc.: -Upstream CapEx (oil well, fracturing, drilling and completion) ≈ 0.5-0.7 trillion US dollars -Midstream (pipeline, collection network, storage and transportation) ≈ 0.25-0.35 trillion US dollars -Downstream of chemical industry (investment driven by cheap gas) ≈ 0.1 trillion US dollars ➡️ Total: Approximately 0.9-1.3 trillion US dollars The AI Revolution (2023-) The four giants (MSFT, AMZN, GOOG, META) are the true wallets of "AI infrastructure". Assuming all CapEx are invested in AI infrastructure, Li: - 2023: $141B - 2024: $190–200B - 2025: $300–360B Accumulated financing of start-up companies: -OpenAI cumulative financing~$57.9B -Anthropic Accumulated Financing~$2B+ - xAI ~ $6B - Inflection ~ $1.5B Other top model companies add up to only a few billion dollars, which is only a fraction compared to CapEx, a large technology company. ➡️ Total: Approximately 0.71-0.8 trillion US dollars