Binance will not lose to Hyperliquid, it will only lose to time.

Written by: Zuo Ye

Trump's later years are lonely.

During his first term, he was accompanied by Ivanka and Kushner, but in the second term, they transformed into Natalie Harp and Witkoff, respectively. The position of daughter was given to a personal assistant, and the position of son-in-law was given to an old friend. Particularly with the latter, Witkoff, an insider crafted by Trump, bypassed formal channels like the Secretary of State to handle minor troubles like Israel-Palestine and Russia-Ukraine as a private envoy.

The insider also managed family business. Witkoff helped young Trump operate the WLFI project, selling a $500 million stake to the UAE royal family, while CZ casually injected $2 billion to issue USD1.

Witkoff has been a bit troubled lately, having taken Sun off to court, with accusations that Sun wanted to unlock early to crash the market, while the other side claimed WLFI violated the principles of decentralization.

The most absurd scenes unfolded, with CZ passively entering the fray. On one hand, USD1 collaborated with Aster on RWA Perp, on the other hand, the Binance wallet launched the second phase of Tron Carnival, doing its best to delay restrictions against HTX.

Disloyalty is, in fact, absolute disloyalty. Having made his choice, Binance naturally would not appear at the CFTC IAC meeting. That meeting table is the name bestowed on the crypto industry by Washington, and it's clear to see who is present and who is absent.

Sin and Punishment

He is determined to marry a chaste girl without a dowry, but she must endure suffering.

In 2017, two days before "9·4," Sun Yuchen finished the edge of Tron’s ICO and went to America, thus beginning his journey as a multinational capitalist;

In 2017, two months after "9·4," Zhao Changpeng finally migrated Binance's servers to AWS, chasing the ten-year arduous journey of the spiritual Americans.

Similar experiences evoked empathy and also sowed distrust in power. After wandering internationally for many years, they found themselves in the Gulf and the Strait, but the tangible and intangible arms of the United States have been probing at their side, making it hard for them to sleep at night.

Looking at the world, opposing the order before becoming rich and craving order after becoming rich is an eternal paradox of human nature. Yet old money tends to be more closed and exclusive; figuring out how "new money" can join "old money" to preserve family wealth is a global challenge.

Do you not see, the rich like Amazon founder Bezos and the prominent son-in-law Kushner who are both waiting painfully for entry approval to the Miami Indian Creek Country Club? Then, for Chinese, the cryptocurrency circle, and the newly rich, integrating into the existing order of the United States is even more difficult.

Even crime can be pardoned, but original sin can only be prayed for, longing for the acceptance of old money and the shelter of America, even the recognition of the circle, thus gaining a moment's respite.

SBF, Arthur Hayes, CZ, just happen to represent three different ethnic backgrounds in the journey through America. Although SBF ultimately lands in prison for 25 years, FTX was once Binance's greatest threat, without exception, even Hyperliquid finds it hard to catch up.

Compliance in this game must follow American rules.

Sun Yuchen is still the same Sun Yuchen, but Trump is not Buffett.

Legal actions may not lose, but the logic of politics does not speak of right or wrong. As Schmitt said, "The primary purpose of politics is to distinguish friend from foe."

Sun and Witkoff are not fighting a lawsuit; they are challenging Trump's face.

Image description: The punishment in crypto does not correspond.

Image source: @zuoyeweb3

Why must compliance aim for the American market? Isn't obtaining a license from Abu Dhabi enough?

It's definitely not enough. The PoW era of cryptocurrency is the manufacturing industry, where making money requires staying in China. The PoS era of cryptocurrency is the financial industry, where rushing to the White House will lead to wealth.

Both the structural advantages of China and the US in the world economy are exactly the same, but people are products shaped by the times. Especially if one has led a certain point, it is easy to become trapped in one’s own path.

Since mid-August, CZ has been continuously mocking the public with meme coins like MarsCoin/Giggle on Twitter. Sun began to cry injustice, calling on everyone to defend the decentralization advantage of USDD and oppose the team control of USD1, without knowing what CZ thinks.

Then Trump mentioned Hyperliquid, and the story switched direction. We do not understand why CZ stands with Sun, but we all know that Binance's car sent Aster to block HL and failed in the first phase, and now facing the compliant US market, scoring points on the new battlefield will become even more difficult.

Even though there have been many disagreements with the current US government, the UK and the EU have successively followed along to sanction HTX, it remains unclear why Binance has delayed many times until there is no retreat.

Perhaps the world is not about fighting and killing; it is about human relationships.

Red and Black

Julien could not see her face, but he still shot at her. When he fired the second shot, she finally fell.

Emotions arise from nowhere and plunge deeply; the stories of CZ, Sun, and Trump still have more to tell, but Binance's attitude towards HL will determine whether Binance has a future.

Creating public opinion on Twitter is ineffective; forming a lobbying group is the correct approach in an American style.

In February 2026, the Hyper Foundation donated 1 million $HYPE to establish the HPC (Hyperliquid Policy Center). Beyond regular lobbying, HPC will also maintain overall Perp compliance to enter the US, waving the banner of strengthening American innovation and advocating for the entire crypto industry.

CME just completed TradeXYZ at the IAC meeting, and HPC released a report right after, using rigorous data to prove that Perp complements CME options. This is the work lobbying firms should do—not bribing officials to smooth relations but coordinating through social media + BD + GR + industry peers to form a collective force to implement.

Image description: HPC report

Image source: @HyperliquidPC

HPC delivers deep liquidity into deep networks, contrasting CZ building BSC in Bhutan, observing HL in the White House with either a cold or warm gaze.

CZ or Binance are not uninterested in lobbying; CZ's ability to obtain a pardon certainly benefits from investment at the million-dollar lobbying level. However, the strange thing is that the more Binance spends, the worse the results often are. In a non-home turf, they have no defense capability. Clearly providing the Trumps with the greatest liquidity, yet they even lack the qualification to attend the IAC meeting, let alone have a position next to the President.

Without the White House, there is no enthusiasm from Wall Street because, in the strict sense, the global financial market is divided into China and the US versus the rest.

The Eastern markets can only operate offshore, while the US market establishes thresholds under the banner of compliance, the core of which is to ensure that control remains in the hands of Americans, much like TikTok.

Binance has been effectively marginalized. To be fair, Coinbase and Kraken, among others, have low competition or innovation capabilities, but relying on barriers to entry, they can only curl up in one corner of America. However, dollars are too valuable, and the US market is sufficiently large.

They outwardly promote compliance but actually hinder Americans from enjoying quality services. However, for Binance, facing after the biggest threat since FTX, giving up liquidity in the American market is unthinkable; otherwise, HL will eventually overturn Binance — Binance can go offshore, and HL can do the same, but Binance cannot operate in America, and HL will.

Image description: Liquidity battle reignited

Image source: @zuoyeweb3

Destined not to be compliant in the US, at least sustaining Binance's liquidity is essential. Asters are unable to bear heavy responsibilities; BN.US, alongside Coinbase, will cater to small clients, and Binance's main site cannot enter the US in the short term.

From this perspective, CZ has rushed into desperate measures, occasionally promoting meme coins to sustain life.

From the market structure perspective, a de facto anti-Binance alliance has formed; Xu Mingxing's OKX and ICE have collaborated to supplement the latter's derivatives and other trading categories. HL and Coinbase seek to suppress Binance's momentum through compliance.

Binance has become Ali-ified. Only the body has combat effectiveness but cannot form any group combat advantage. It's even unclear who is targeting Binance. Binance has almost sponsored all crypto KOLs and has contributed over $4 billion in non-tax revenue to America, which is 40 times that of BitMEX, but has received neither honor nor recognition.

Even HL's Jeff is of Chinese descent, and Trump has even given Sun Yuchen a chance in a thin-skinned courtroom, so you cannot accuse Trump of racial discrimination. Perhaps all Chinese are equal, but some Chinese are more equal than others.

Outsider

On the day I was arrested, I was held in a prison dominated by Arabs, and they laughed and asked me what crime I committed. I said I killed an Arab, and they stopped talking to me.

Regardless of how the story between Binance and HL unfolds, CZ can never regain the historical status of before October 11. At that time, Vitalik had already stormed toward the apocalypse of L2 with a16z, and Wall Street was becoming the new master of Crypto.

Under the explosive rise on August 20, every exchange was engaging in TradFi businesses, whether under the name of RWA or DEX. In the world we are familiar with, everyone faintly senses that things will not be the same as before.

It will no longer be an alternation between BTC and altcoins claiming kingship; CZ, along with Binance, wallets, and the Asters, can only passively enter the markets of USD1/USDC.

Without BUSD, it is the first crack in Binance, while HL has already secured the repurchase commitment of $HYPE tied to USDC; at that time, we thought the CC combination (Coinbase + Circle) would use this model to expand liquidity and thus counter USDT.

But now, it has become clear and distinct; the target has always been the liquidity of Binance. If one needs a reason for HL, it would be most appropriate to repay the vendetta against $JELLYJELLY.

Image description: In-depth liquidity exchange

Image source: @asxn_r

Today, the liquidity depth or spreads of HL relative to Binance has ceased to be news. HL has accumulated a following, crazily expressing their enthusiasm in the town square, and Binance can only face off against liquidity competition.

Then there is the continuous lowering of VIP standards. The discerning EU naturally refused the application for the MiCA license, and you can even see how a Binance open to all cooperative users is repeatedly questioned about its stance within the cracks.

Binance will provide user information to Russia, will cooperate with the UAE inquiry into employees, and will also face collective lawsuits in the UK.

This is not simply "having a large family brings many troubles," but the issue of choosing sides, which is precisely the taboo for Binance holding the strongest liquidity. If you want to become the Peace Hotel, then you must accommodate all kinds of people.

Binance providing user information to Russia may seem egregious in the eyes of the Western world, but Trump's Witkoff has visited Moscow over 8 times since 2025.

This is Binance's dilemma: in an increasingly opposing world, there is no longer a need for a Peace Hotel, yet no one wants to bear the blame for breaking the peace. They hope CZ will choose actively, and then, when the other party is angry, the resentment will be directed at Binance.

In anxious unease, what CZ can do is continually distribute resources to all parties, in exchange for Sun wanting to use USDD to replace USD1’s narrative legitimacy, and further discontent from the Trump family towards him.

One could even say that this sense of outsider alienation echoes crypto's relationship with the entire world. Before the current Trump market began, everyone was fleeing, either to cut leeks with AI or to take a break from life.

Compared to AB Finance, which died in the womb, and BitMart, which was half-buried and then resurrected, Binance is indeed too powerful, powerful enough that the entire industry has no competitors. Even founders are actively marketing, recruiting customers.

However, artificially driven markets are too uncontrollable, and there’s no such thing as a BTC four-year cycle, nor any quantum crisis, or ETH L1 mainnet upgrades; everyone's attitude is one of indifference, nonchalance.

Everyone's dissatisfaction needs an outlet, and quietly working hard, Jeff needs to concentrate resources to ensure good Perp liquidity, amidst the ebb and flow, the initiative has already changed hands.

Ultimately, Binance will lose to time.

Conclusion

Every mortal has one death, and every mortal must serve.

The thorns of the Iron Throne are written in blood; each generation of entrepreneurs has its historical mission. I often wonder how CZ would fare if he retired after getting out of prison; perhaps Giggle would really not just be a Meme Coin.

Facing old money, Trump, Jeff, Sun, and the royal families of Abu Dhabi, amidst endless concerns, has CZ ever reminisced about the card games in Shanghai? Back then, laughter was just laughter; when he first heard about Bitcoin created by Satoshi Nakamoto, and felt the refinement and beauty while reading the white paper, did he ever think that this was not an opportunity for getting rich, but a chance to participate in changing the world?

Perhaps there will never be an answer, or perhaps after this, all will be answers.

Facing the historical process of HL replacing Binance, I look forward to discovering opportunities within, but the moment Binance falls, I will nostalgically cherish the story of CZ for ten minutes and eleven seconds.