TL;DR

• Nomura expects a CAGR of about 10% for MLCC release film demand from 2025 to 2028, and Lintec is given a buy rating.
• AI servers require more high-end multi-layer MLCCs, while the release film is stuck in the process of slurry coating, printing, and stacking.
• Japanese manufacturers hold over 80% market share, but price pressure and the pace of expansion in 2026 will still limit performance elasticity.

Nomura's report on July 2 connects the demand for AI servers to a more upstream Japanese material segment: MLCC release film. The agency expects the CAGR of this material demand to be about 10% from 2025 to 2028 and has given Lintec a "buy" rating with a target price of 7,850 yen.

MLCCs are multilayer ceramic capacitors widely used in electronic systems such as servers, power supplies, and motherboards. With the improvements in the computing power and power consumption of AI servers, more high-capacity, high-reliability multi-layer MLCCs are needed. The higher the number of layers, the greater the requirements for smoothness, cleanliness, and stability of the release film used in the production process.

The key players in this chain are mainly Japanese material companies. According to Nomura's estimate, Japanese manufacturers hold over 80% of the global MLCC release film market share, with Lintec at about 37% and Toyobo at about 32%. Lintec is closer to high-end coating demand, Toyobo is expanding production, while Toray is more focused on the upstream base film segment.

AI Servers Push Demand to Release Film

The release film is not the final component of MLCCs, but it appears in key steps of MLCC manufacturing.

During MLCC production, manufacturers need to first coat the dielectric slurry on the release film, dry it, and then proceed with printing and layering the internal electrodes. The process shown in Toray's IR materials also highlights steps like "Slurry Casting," "Inner electrode printing," "Release film," and "Base PET film." If the surface of the release film is not smooth enough, it may affect the printing accuracy of the electrodes and interlayer stability.

The change brought by AI servers is the simultaneous increase in both demand and specifications for high-end MLCCs. TrendForce noted on June 17 that AI ASICs and accelerator platforms are driving concentrated demand for high-end MLCCs, with notable increases in certain specifications, also indicating a rising risk of supply tightening in the second half of 2026. This external perspective cannot directly verify a CAGR of about 10% for release film demand but supports the demand trend of "AI servers driving high-end MLCCs."

Schematic diagram of MLCC production process, showing the role of release film from the dielectric slurry coating to internal electrode printing and stacking.

The key figure provided by Nomura is that the CAGR for MLCC release film demand from 2025 to 2028 is about 10%. This growth rate is not low for a mature material segment, especially in the absence of comprehensive high growth in consumer electronics, with AI servers becoming the main incremental source.

However, the growth in demand does not equate to overall performance elasticity for the companies. According to the report, MLCC release film-related business accounts for about 7% of Lintec's sales and approximately 17% of its operating profit; about 6% of Toyobo's sales and approximately 13% of its operating profit; and about 1% of Toray's sales and approximately 3% of its operating profit. This indicates that while the business has a high profit margin, it is not the sole deciding factor for large material company's revenue.

Sales weight, operating profit weight, and profit margin of MLCC release film businesses for various companies: Lintec 7%/17%/18%, Toyobo 6%/13%/16%, Toray 1%/3%/15%.

Lintec and Toyobo Combined Hold Nearly 70% Share

The MLCC release film market is highly concentrated.

In terms of the market share of terminal products after coating, Lintec has approximately 37%, Toyobo about 32%, Mitsui Chemicals about 12%, and other manufacturers around 19%. The combined market share of Lintec and Toyobo is close to 70%.

Lintec's advantage mainly lies in its high-end coating capabilities. It procures base films externally, then performs release coating processing and delivers them to MLCC customers. In high-end applications like AI servers, Lintec is more likely to directly benefit from increased demand for multi-layer MLCCs.

Toyobo's differentiation lies in its simultaneous capabilities in base film and coating. Public company information shows that its new Utsunomiya release film facility has been completed and is operational, with investor materials indicating that commercial production will begin in spring 2025, reaching full production by the end of FY3/26. The Nomura report points to the third quarter of 2026 as the node for full production. If the capacity is released as planned, Toyobo has the opportunity to accommodate more high-end demand after 2027.

Toray’s position is more upstream. It holds over 50% market share in external sales of MLCC release film base films. Public IR information indicates that Toray's new Gifu production line will start operations in February 2026; according to Nomura's report, related production capacity will increase to 1.6 times the original, with room for subsequent sales growth.

MLCC release film market shares: Lintec 37%, Toyobo 32%, Mitsui Chemicals 12%, others 19%.

This also determines that the material increments brought by AI servers will not be evenly distributed. Lintec is more like a direct beneficiary of high-end demand, Toyobo resembles a share challenger after capacity release, while Toray benefits from the growth in external sales of base films.

Behind the 7,850 Yen Target Price, Lintec Also Faces Capacity Pressure

On specific targets, Nomura's stance on Lintec is the most explicit, rating it as "buy" with a target price of 7,850 yen. The report uses a stock price of 7,110 yen as of July 1, with an expected P/E ratio of 17.8 times in 2026.

In the same valuation table, Toyobo is rated as "neutral" with a target price of 1,800 yen; Toray is also rated as "neutral" with a target price of 1,170 yen; and Murata Manufacturing, one of the downstream MLCC leaders, is rated as "buy" with a target price of 6,000 yen. These target prices and valuation basis come from Nomura's research report and do not represent public market consensus expectations.

Valuation comparison table of companies related to MLCC, including Lintec, Toyobo, Toray, Murata Manufacturing, etc., along with ratings, target prices, current stock prices, and valuations for 2026-2028.

Lintec's shortcoming also lies in its capacity. Nomura warns that if the company does not promptly advance new expansions, it may approach full capacity by 2027. If demand related to AI servers continues to grow, the supply may not keep up with orders, potentially allowing some shares to flow to competitors like Toyobo.

Toyobo's opportunity comes from here. After capacity release, if industry demand maintains an annual growth of about 10%, the new capacity can translate into share gains; but if demand falls short of expectations, the new supply will also increase pressure on prices and capacity utilization.

Toray’s expansion of base films feels more like alleviating upstream bottlenecks. Since MLCC release films require high smoothness from the base film surface, an increase in base film supply capability will help support coating manufacturers in expanding shipments. However, the related business's contribution to Toray's overall revenue and profit is relatively small, making it harder to change the overall valuation alone.

Volume is Growing, but Prices May Not Rise Continuously

This is not a simple story of "demand rising, prices rising, stock prices rising." The main boundaries are price and expansion pace.

Nomura judges that there is a risk of decline in MLCC release film prices in 2026. After Toyobo's new capacity release and Toray's base film capacity increase, industry supply will increase, and prices may not necessarily rise in sync with demand. The report also notes that overall expansion is still relatively moderate, and capacity utilization is expected not to drop significantly, reducing the probability of a sharp price decline, with material manufacturers continuing to benefit mainly from increased shipments.

This judgment requires two prerequisites: that the demand for multi-layer MLCCs used in AI servers continues to be realized, and that the new capacity does not significantly outpace high-end demand growth. If terminal capital expenditures slow down, or MLCC manufacturers enter inventory adjustments, the growth rate of release film demand may fall below the approximately 10% projected in Nomura's model.

The more realistic divergence lies in company execution. If Lintec's expansion lags, it may miss some high-end orders; if Toyobo's expansion does not adequately meet demand, it may face pressure on prices and utilization rates; and although Toray has a high market share in base films, the related business occupies a limited proportion of the group's total.

AI servers have indeed pushed the small material segment of MLCC release film into the market spotlight, but the realization of performance still depends on whether high-end MLCC orders can continue to grow, and whether Japanese manufacturers' capacity expansions just happen to keep pace and do not prematurely become new supply pressures.

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