Author: qinbafrank

Goldman Sachs' outlook for the US semiconductor sector pre-Q2 and highlights of related semiconductor stock earnings.

Goldman Sachs' core logic: the fundamentals are still subject to upward adjustments, but the trading thresholds have been raised.

This aligns with the logic of the earnings season forecast in July discussed yesterday: “The key point of this earnings season is that expectations are already very high, and the margin for error is low. High expectations mean that the market not only wants companies to beat estimates, but also to significantly raise their forecasts.” (Related reading: July US stock forecast: AI trading is entering a “transition period”, shifting from total enthusiasm to a rigorous ROI evaluation)

Goldman Sachs notes in their outlook for the US semiconductor sector that the core variables of the earnings season have shifted from “whether this season can surpass expectations” to “2027-2028 orders, client budgets, pricing, and capacity realization.”

Goldman Sachs foresees that computing power, storage, equipment, packaging, testing, and parts of the analog chain still have fundamental upward adjustments, but SOX has significantly outperformed in Q2, and the market's optimistic expectations for AI capex have already been reflected. Therefore, this earnings season should not be viewed merely as a beat, but rather whether server CPU/GPU, ASIC, DRAM/NAND, WFE, advanced packaging, and testing complexity can continue to provide long-term visibility.

1. AMD: Goldman Sachs sees a slight upward adjustment in Q2/Q3, mainly driven by server CPU, with client capex increasing and MI450 ramping up in the second half supporting this. The Advancing AI event on July 23 is seen as an important observation point, with the market focusing on the deployment rhythm of Meta, OpenAI, and the 2027 GPU revenue framework.
2. Arm Holdings: The company's short summary focuses on AGI CPU supply, FY27 royalty growth, and expense outlook. Goldman Sachs highlights short-term divergences in cloud CPU licensing pace, recovery extent in mobile, and expense rates; if royalty growth does not align with expense investments, performance elasticity will be reassessed.
3. Cadence: EDA remains a high demand area for AI design investment. Goldman Sachs is watching whether 2026 guidance continues to rise and how the commercialization of AI tools impacts core EDA and IP revenue; customer adoption, renewal rhythm, and product bundling strategy are the most critical validation points this season.
4. Intel: The focus is on external foundry progress and whether server CPUs exceed expectations. PC demand appears to be flat, but Goldman Sachs sees a positive setup for server CPUs; investors will focus on foundry milestones, client validation progress, capital expenditure discipline, and whether the product roadmap can continue to deliver.
5. Qualcomm: Goldman Sachs' focus in Q2 is on the FY27 data center outlook and smartphone demand. The strength of the smartphone supply chain recovery remains uncertain, and if the data center business can provide clearer insights into customers, revenue, and timelines, it will be a key variable for the market to reassess the company's growth trajectory.
6. Microchip: The analog cycle is entering a recovery phase, and Goldman Sachs expects the company still has upward adjustment opportunities. The market will closely watch order recovery, channel inventory digestion, gross margin trajectory, and changes in industrial/automotive demand; if revenue improvement is accompanied by expense control, profit elasticity will be clearer.
7. NXP Semiconductors: Goldman Sachs expects steady Q2 performance, aimed at restoring market confidence in the automotive and industrial chains. Focus areas include whether automotive semiconductor inventory destocking is approaching its end, the pace of order replenishment in the industrial sector, and whether the company can maintain price and gross margin stability at the beginning of demand recovery.
8. onsemi: Goldman Sachs views this season's setup as biased positively, focusing on data center power devices and the latest acquisition assets. The automotive chain still needs observation, but if data center power, silicon carbide, and power management demand continue to improve, it will increase the market's confidence in the company's mid-term revenue structure.
9. SiTime: Goldman Sachs expects demand from data centers and aerospace to continue to drive valuation improvements. The company benefits from the penetration of high-precision clocks in AI servers, networks, and defense scenarios; investors will focus on the proportion of high-end products, order visibility, and long-term revenue slope.
10. Texas Instruments: The focus in Q2 is on end market and factory utilization rates. Goldman Sachs expects data for the season to be strong, but the market is more concerned with whether inventory replenishment expands to industrial and automotive sectors and whether increases in capacity utilization will continue to translate into gross margin improvements.
11. Applied Materials: Goldman Sachs expects strong figures and identifies the 2027 WFE increase and pricing as key variables. Demand for DRAM, advanced logic, and advanced packaging collectively supports orders; investors will focus on the visibility of 2028 WFE and equipment demand outside China.
12. Amkor: Goldman Sachs is watching the momentum of 2.5D packaging and progress at the Arizona plant. The shortage of advanced packaging in AI/HPC is favorable for market share expansion, but the ramp-up of new capacity may also bring short-term profit pressures; customer concentration, project wins, and capacity utilization are core observations.
13. Camtek: The company is highly correlated with HBM4, advanced packaging inspection, and 2027 visibility. Goldman Sachs believes the market will focus on the HBM4 ramp, packaging process share, and order continuity; if capital expenditures for advanced packaging continue to rise, the company's revenue visibility is expected to strengthen.
14. Entegris: Key focuses are wafer production recovery, unit demand-driven material consumption, enhancements in advanced process content, and deleveraging rhythm. Goldman Sachs believes this season is about verifying whether material demand shifts from inventory recovery to genuine driving force, and whether cash flow improvements keep pace.
15. GlobalFoundries: Goldman Sachs places emphasis on silicon photonics/CPO progress, a recovery in mature nodes, and pricing. Mature processes are still influenced by industrial and automotive cycles, but if the clarity improves regarding clients, revenue ramps, and capacity scheduling of SiPh/CPO projects, the company’s mid-term narrative will be more focused.
16. KLA: Goldman Sachs expects performance and guidance to be slightly better, but believes the market has already reflected this sufficiently. The core observations involve the process control intensity brought by advanced logic and memory, the measurement value per wafer, and the elasticity of orders within the 2027/2028 WFE expansion.
17. Lam Research: Goldman Sachs is paying attention to the 2027 WFE increase and timing in the NAND cycle. DRAM and advanced packaging support near-term orders, and if NAND prices improve in sync with customers' capital expenditures, it will open up space for subsequent recovery; also to consider are the stability of service revenue and gross margins.
18. MKS: Investors will be watching whether the company can outperform WFE, the momentum in advanced packaging business, and efforts to deleverage. Goldman Sachs highlights the quality of the cyclical recovery: if order recovery mainly comes from short-term inventory replenishment, margin and cash flow improvements will be weaker than market expectations.
19. SanDisk: Goldman Sachs expects a very strong quarter, focusing on customer agreements and NAND supply discipline. NAND price recovery, long-term agreements, and inventory structure improvements are the main supports; the market will keep an eye on the proportion of high-value-added products and whether supply expansion remains restrained.
20. Seagate: HDD pricing and margins remain key variables. Nearline demand is boosted by cloud providers and AI storage, and supply constraints make prices sticky; investors will focus on the high-capacity product mix, long-term agreements, and whether margins continue to improve.
21. Western Digital: Goldman Sachs emphasizes HDD shortages and long-term gross margin upside potential. Nearline demand from the cloud remains strong, and the NAND business also benefits from supply-demand recovery; the market will test the company's consistency in pricing, product mix, and capacity discipline.
22. Qnity: Goldman Sachs believes the company still has growth potential, but this season is more about looking at wafer production increases and operational execution. The key issues are whether client expansion rhythms, material/equipment delivery capabilities, cost control, and capacity utilization can jointly support revenue growth.
23. Teradyne: The focus is on second-half revenue, the recovery of storage testing, and the share of commercial GPU testing. AI accelerators, HBM, and advanced SoC increase testing complexity, and if order visibility extends to 2027, the logic for revising the TAM of testing equipment will become clearer.

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