Original Title: Polymarket v. Kalshi: A Complete Timeline of The Prediction Market Meme Wars
Original Author: Hunter Ryerson, Pirate Wires
Translator: Peggy, BlockBeats
Editor's Note: From free grocery stores to meme wars filled with mutual ridicule, the competition between Polymarket and Kalshi has gone beyond just product and market share, evolving into a carefully crafted war for attention. This article outlines the timeline of confrontations between the two prediction market platforms over the years: regulatory battles, user bans and returns, competitive meme-making on social media, and ultimately, marketing spectacles spilling into the real world. Behind the seemingly absurd dramatics lies a continual rise in trading volume, valuations, and capital expectations.
The original text is as follows:
On the morning of February 12, Manhattan. You wake up in a $2000-per-month apartment, as small as a shoebox, turn up the heat, and shuffle to the pantry to see if you can scrounge up some breakfast. Then you remember: you ate the last pack of instant ramen at 3 AM last night.
As you hesitate over whether to continue contributing 20% of your income to DoorDash, a friend texts you, telling you that a new grocery store called "The Polymarket" has opened on Madison Street—and everything inside is free. So, naturally, you put on some pants, head down to lower Manhattan, successfully squeeze into the store, and instantly enter "Black Friday wild shopping" mode, grabbing everything you can with your debt-riddled hands.
As you walk home with an overstuffed shopping bag, filled with Sour Patch Kids and the first vegetables you've seen in weeks, you pass a billboard advertisement: a market in the East Village is having a promotion—sponsored by a company called "Kalshi," offering a $50 free grocery credit.
Am I dreaming? How could I be this lucky?
Congratulations, you have been swept into the latest round of advertising wars in the prediction market.
That's right. This week, the explosive prediction market platform Polymarket announced its latest marketing gimmick: opening a "completely free grocery store" in New York City, operating from February 12 to February 16.
And its competitor, another prediction market Kalshi, is not to be outdone, launching its own "grocery-themed" marketing campaign: a one-day giveaway of $50 universal grocery subsidies at Westside Market on Third Avenue.
This "tit-for-tat" imitation has led one X user to comment: "Kalshi and Polymarket can't even last 24 hours without copying each other."
At first glance, it seems a bit absurd that Polymarket and Kalshi rely on "free bananas" for marketing, but this is just the latest scene in the long-standing "blood feud" between the two platforms. It's worth noting that their weekly trading volumes can reach billions of dollars. In simple terms, their business models allow people to bet on seemingly innocuous event outcomes for potentially huge returns, such as—whether the U.S. military will capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro while he’s wearing athleisure pajamas. (That night, some unknown internet sleuth, hopefully not Pete Hegseth, made a fortune.)
In summary, over the short span of five years, these two prediction market platforms have continuously competed against each other, but the true escalation of their rivalry fully erupted only in the last two years.
Polymarket was founded in 2020 by NYU dropout Shayne Coplan and is a cryptocurrency-based platform. Bettors need to deposit stablecoins USDC, equivalent to the U.S. dollar, on the Polygon blockchain to buy "yes" or "no" prediction shares.
In comparison, Kalshi initially operated almost entirely in U.S. dollars, with transactions and funds handled through traditional bank accounts. Since launching in 2021, it has mainly focused on sports betting, which accounts for 90% of the platform's total trading volume. Polymarket, on the other hand, leans towards geopolitical and cultural events, such as wars, conflicts, and elections, even paying U.S. influencers to promote its political content.
From 2022 to 2025, due to intense regulatory pressure from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)—which fined it $1.4 million—Polymarket banned U.S. users from accessing its platform, effectively handing the U.S. market over to Kalshi for several years. However, just a few months ago, Polymarket returned to the U.S. market, reigniting intense conflict between the two, with various frictions playing out on the X platform and in broader online spaces.
For the "always online" internet users, the most entertaining part of this war is the so-called "competitive shitposting."
In the sports realm, this strategy is reflected in the parodic imitation of official sports announcement graphics, the kind you often see on ESPN or FOX Sports accounts used to announce trades, drafts, or injury news. The two platforms have used eye-catching joke headlines to "report" sports news, like Polymarket's "DICK IS GROWING," referencing Toronto Raptors player Gradey Dick's weight increase; or Kalshi's "LOVES RECEIVING BALLS," referring to San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey's "love for receptions," you know, the literal kind of "catching passes."
But as both sides fight for "meme-based attention," the tactics have started to become more nefarious.
In November 2024, evidence emerged that Kalshi attempted to pay some influencers—like former NFL wide receiver and current X platform personality Antonio Brown—to publish and spread negative remarks about Polymarket (see: "Kalshi Pays Influencers to Attack Polymarket CEO After FBI Raid"). In one instance, a journalist reportedly was offered $3,500 to write a "hit piece" targeting Polymarket. (Side note: If Solana were to offer me that much for a hit piece, I could have Jackie Fielder impeached by Monday.)
It is said that these influencers "tapped" by Kalshi together have millions of followers. Over the past few years, they have been attempting to gradually erode Polymarket's credibility.
Following this incident, the Trump administration relaxed regulations on prediction markets, allowing Polymarket to make a strong return to the U.S. market. After months of preparation, the U.S. user ban was officially lifted in December, and Polymarket is now trying to regain the majority share of the on-chain prediction market (currently, after integration with the Solana blockchain, Kalshi still holds a dominant position).
The way they have found to "amplify their voices" is through making news on X. Over the past few months, Polymarket and Kalshi's brand accounts have been clashing on timelines, using catchy headlines and celebrity quotes to compete for communication advantage—sometimes even disregarding accuracy or other principles. Recently, Polymarket incorrectly attributed a statement to Jeff Bezos and exaggerated repatriation data; while Kalshi spread false claims about negotiations to buy Greenland.
In the end, this feud has spread from online to the real world, and hopefully, it can continue to bring some positive "spillover effects" to ordinary Americans like you, who are financially strapped. But the real point is: whether it's marketing gimmicks like "free grocery" or mocking each other on the X platform, both companies are exceptionally skilled at creating topics and keeping people talking about them.
No matter how suspicious and dark their antics are to outdo each other, as long as they are bizarrely generous, we are still discussing this matter.
Perhaps that is exactly the result they want. Kalshi and Polymarket have valuations of $11 billion and $9 billion, respectively, and they continue to rise at an astonishing rate. So as long as the dramatic actions in this crazy war can attract a few hundred more bettors to go online or bring in a few more investors, then it’s all worth it. For these two "duelers," it’s a win-win, if you’re willing to believe that.
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