1. The Bitcoin Strategy Remains Unchanged, Focused on Short Positions at High Levels
The strategy provided yesterday was clear: wait for a rebound and position for short trades at high levels.
As mentioned the day before, the key resistance level above is at 91,000, so the short defense level remains at 91,000. During the volume increase on December 29, we also clearly reminded everyone not to chase the highs; a more appropriate approach is to wait for a rebound before considering short positions at high levels.
After the market retraced, I emphasized in yesterday's daytime video: the structure is still bearish, but I do not recommend directly chasing shorts at lower levels.
The reason is simple: the market is currently in a support area at the hourly level, and it has consolidated here for a long time, so further fluctuations are possible, and it may even rebound first.
Therefore, the current short strategy focuses on short positions.
If you want to establish a new long-term short position, you need to wait for a clear break below the previous low of 84,500. Only a break below 84,500 would indicate a decline—after a rebound, the market would continue to weaken, and a new short structure would be established. Until then, the focus remains on short-term trades.
2. Do Not Chase Shorts, Nor Take Long Positions on Rebounds
It is important to emphasize:
Waiting for a high short after a rebound does not mean you can participate in long positions during the rebound.
Even though the market did indeed experience a rebound yesterday, these long positions can still be chosen to be abandoned; it is perfectly fine not to take them. In the current structure, there is no need to increase risk just to take an additional long position.
3. Range Fluctuations, but Structure Remains Unchanged
From the current trend, the price is still operating near the hourly support level, which has been tested multiple times and has triggered rebounds.
Lower support: around 86,500
Upper resistance: around 90,500
There is considerable fluctuation space within the range, but it is important to note:
Just because the support has not been broken does not mean you can go long.
The lower support has not been broken, but the key resistance above has also not been breached. Until the resistance level is effectively broken, the overall structure remains bearish.
Therefore, the conclusion remains:
90,500–91,000 is still the short defense area, with 91,000 as the defense level, positioning for shorts at high levels, and the risk-reward ratio remains reasonable.
New short opportunities can be found in both Bitcoin and Ethereum, as their structures are consistent.
The short-term target still focuses on whether the previous low of 80,500–80,000 forms a break.
4. Ethereum: Structure Consistent with Bitcoin
Ethereum has not been discussed in detail recently, mainly because its structure is basically consistent with Bitcoin.
At the weekly and daily levels, it still shows a complete bearish structure.
Although there was a reversal trend at the hourly level previously, it did not drive a reversal in the larger cycle; it resembles a rebound or central adjustment, and the overall reversal has failed. From a structural perspective, Ethereum is still in a complete bearish trend.
5. Key Resistance Level for Ethereum
Currently, the key upper resistance level for Ethereum to focus on is at 3050.
This level has structural significance similar to Bitcoin's 90,500–91,000:
It is both a previous spike level and a point where multiple rebounds encountered resistance, forming support turned resistance after a break.
Therefore, 3050 is a clear resistance level.
The short defense level can be set at 3070–3080, which is slightly above 3050, waiting for a rebound to strategically position for shorts, which is currently a more reasonable plan.
6. Finally
Overall, both Bitcoin and Ethereum currently meet the conditions for participating in short positions.
Although the short-term market is fluctuating and the pace is slow, the structure has not changed:
Weekly and daily trends remain bearish
Small-level bullish trends have turned bearish
Key resistance levels have not been broken
At this stage, the most important thing is still patience.
When the decline will truly start is uncertain, but until the structure changes, trading strategies should not be frequently adjusted.
Follow me, join the community, and let's progress together.
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