After the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum rose, they faced selling pressure again last night, with the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in January increasing to 80%!
On Monday, Bitcoin rebounded during the day, reaching a high of around 90600 before the US market opened last night. Ethereum broke through the 3000 mark in the morning and gradually rose, peaking at around 3080 in the evening. After the US market opened, prices experienced significant volatility and fell, with Bitcoin dipping to 87800 and Ethereum dropping to 2960, erasing the day's gains.
From a macro perspective, Federal Reserve executive Milan stated last night that policies need to be further loosened to prevent an economic recession. The rising unemployment rate should prompt continued interest rate cuts; however, since September, there have been three rate cuts totaling 75 basis points, and there is no need for a significant cut of 50 basis points next month. The strong stance on rate cuts has softened, and the possibility of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in January has increased to 80%.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has not broken through the midline on the daily chart and is still operating between the midline and the lower line. However, the four-hour MA5 moving average is still trending upwards, providing support, and the hourly MACD is also contracting and repairing, indicating that there may still be some short-term rebounds, although the rebound space is limited. The short-term resistance to watch during the day is at 89500 and 90500, which are the key conversion zones mentioned yesterday. Only a strong breakthrough and stabilization above these levels could potentially change the recent bearish trend. The short-term support below remains at the 87000–86000 area.
Ethereum is showing more resilience, currently holding at the 3000 mark. On the technical side, there is resistance at the midline of 3060 on the daily chart, which has not yet been broken. This is the area of short-term resistance to focus on; only a strong breakthrough above this level can lead to further testing of the strong resistance area at 3150–3250. Otherwise, the price is still likely to experience weak fluctuations. The short-term support below has moved up to the 2940–2900 area, which is a key defensive zone for the day's pullback.
BTC Short-term
Support: 87000, 86000
Resistance: 89500, 90500
ETH Short-term
Support: 2940, 2900
Resistance: 3060, 3150
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