The market environment is crucial.
Written by: Ola Ξlixir
Translated by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News
ICO is the hottest topic on crypto Twitter lately, and everyone is discussing it.
Everyone feels they have found the next MegaETH or Plasma.
But most people overlook a key point:
Among these ICOs, only a few can actually make money; the crypto market has always been this way.
A project creates a model, and it succeeds.
Then ten teams follow suit, thinking they can succeed in the same way, but such success is hard to replicate, and nine out of ten will fail.
Now, every team wants to do an ICO just because MegaETH and Plasma are popular.
They think, rather than giving you an airdrop, it’s better to make you pay to "get in."
However, those two projects succeeded because they were well-planned before execution.
Now, before you invest in any ICO, take a look at the following points.
1. The product is fundamental
Forget about those flashy PPTs and KOL's hype posts.
Just ask a simple question:
Does this product really solve a current practical problem? Does it have real innovation? Why do they have to issue a token?
If this product only exists in a "future story" or requires a bunch of assumptions to be valid, that’s very risky.
Good ICOs usually have something that is actually running, rather than false promises or testnet data.
If they can’t clearly explain what the product does in one sentence, that’s your first red flag.
2. The team is important
The quality of a project depends on the strength of the team behind it.
Look at the team's past records:
Have they created any products in the crypto space or outside of it before?
Experience is a plus, indicating they have walked this path.
An anonymous team isn’t necessarily a bad thing,
But they must deliver exceptional results to earn trust.
When the market changes, strong teams can adjust flexibly;
Weak teams will disappear immediately when the hype fades; this is a field of "attention economy."
3. Investors and valuation
Who invested in this project? Is it top-tier VC or a third-rate fund?
How much money did they raise? What is the valuation? This is more important than many people think.
If insiders and early investors have already entered at a very low valuation, you are likely to be their "bag holder."
Good ICOs, even without hype, have a sound valuation logic;
Poor ICOs can only rely on hype and vanity metrics to support their asking price.
4. Look at real data, not surface numbers
Do they have actual revenue? What are the active user numbers and total locked value (TVL)?
Most importantly, consider the quality of this data; any data can be fabricated.
If testnet data can be easily manipulated, it is meaningless.
A dashboard full of fake activity data won’t magically turn into real usage overnight; Monad is a clear example.
Check if user demand is genuinely organic, whether people are willing to use the product without incentives,
Or if they are only doing it for the potential airdrop at the end?
5. Marketing and narrative ability
The importance of marketing exceeds many people's imagination.
MegaETH's marketing was executed very well.
The team controlled everything and fully grasped the narrative direction.
Everyone is actively discussing MegaETH.
In the Web3 world, attention is everything.
If an ICO has no attention before launch, don’t expect any miracles after launch; think about Monad again.
Good projects know how to clearly tell their story from the very beginning.
Poor projects only hide behind buzzwords: "We are building the next ChatGPT+Nvidia+prediction market for Web3…" Well, the story sounds good.
6. Issuance terms and valuation
Read the terms carefully:
Token unlock rules
Vesting schedule
Circulating supply
Fully diluted valuation (FDV) at listing
Understanding the complete token economics is very important. If you don’t understand, use AI tools to help you analyze.
If the ICO structure heavily favors insiders and shifts all the risks to retail investors, then stay away quickly.
Fair issuance does not mean cheap; it means the interests of the project party and participants are aligned.
7. The market environment is crucial
This point is the easiest to overlook.
In a real bull market, a decent project can achieve a fully diluted valuation of $500 million to $1 billion just based on narrative.
Yet now, even the hottest projects often only maintain a valuation of $100 million to $300 million.
This directly affects your risk and return judgment.
The same project can yield vastly different results in different markets.
Timing may not be everything, but it is never irrelevant.
Final thoughts
ICOs are not free money; they never have been.
This current trend will create some winners but will also leave a long list of lessons learned.
Don’t buy just because others are buying, or because your favorite KOL is promoting it.
Don’t assume that all the projects being hyped now will be the next MegaETH.
And those worst projects will only exploit your FOMO and the psychology of chasing trends, with no substantial content.
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