Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) Market Analysis (July 22, 2025)
1. Current Trend of Bitcoin (BTC)
Price Range: Bitcoin is currently trading in the range of $116,000 - $119,000, showing a short-term consolidation pattern. The latest quote on July 22 is $117,725, with a slight increase of 0.30% over the past 24 hours.
- Technical Analysis:
The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating that a trend reversal is approaching, with short-term fluctuations likely in the $116,000 - $120,000 range.
- Key Support Levels: $115,000 (gap fill level), $112,000 (intersection of trend line and FVG).
- Key Resistance Levels: $120,000 (psychological level, a breakout may trigger a short squeeze).
- On-chain Data:
- Whale addresses are increasing their holdings, with the number of addresses holding over 1,000 BTC rising, indicating long-term confidence.
The MVRV ratio is 147.63%, suggesting that the market is still in a profitable state, but caution is needed for potential short-term profit-taking.
2. Current Trend of Ethereum (ETH)
Price Performance: ETH has fallen below $3,700 today, with a 24-hour decline of 0.92%-3%.
- Technical Analysis:
- Short-term Support: $3,680 (strong support level), if broken, it may drop to $3,200-$3,400.
- Key Resistance: $3,850-$3,900 (recent highs).
- Capital Inflows:
- Continuous inflow of funds into Ethereum ETFs, totaling $2.27 billion in July, with institutional holdings rising to 4%.
- Short-term floating profit ratio is 95%, indicating that the market is overbought in the short term, or there may be a need for a correction.
3. Market Influencing Factors
- Macroeconomic Policies:
- Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations: The probability of a rate cut in September has risen to 57.2%, which could benefit the market if inflation data cools.
- Trump signed the "Genius Act," clarifying the regulatory framework for stablecoins, which boosts market sentiment in the short term.
- Capital Flow:
- Bitcoin exchange net inflow ($9.51M), which may face selling pressure in the short term.
- Strong inflow of funds into ETH ETFs, with institutions continuing to increase their positions.
4. Trading Recommendations
- Bitcoin (BTC):
- Short-term: Buy low and sell high in the $116,000-$120,000 range, with a stop loss if it falls below $115,000.
- Long-term: Accumulate in batches if it retraces to $112,000-$115,000.
- Ethereum (ETH):
- Short-term: If it retraces to $3,600-$3,700, consider a light long position, targeting $3,850.
- Long-term: If it drops to $3,200-$3,400 or $2,900 (ideal buying point), consider buying on dips.
5. Risk Warning
Bitcoin: If it falls below $112,000, it may further retrace to $108,000 (institutional accumulation zone).
- Ethereum: If it cannot hold above $3,700 in the short term, it may test the $3,400 support.
Market Sentiment: Attention should be paid to the impact of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book and CPI data on interest rate expectations.
Summary
Bitcoin is in a short-term consolidation phase but remains bullish in the long term, with key support at $112,000-$115,000; Ethereum is supported by institutional funds but faces higher short-term correction risks, with a focus on the $3,680 support level. The market is still dominated by macroeconomic policies and capital flows, and it is recommended to control positions and wait for trend confirmation.
There are many types of investments, and it is important to choose the one that suits you. There are many paths, and it is crucial to choose the right guide. I am Gu Yue, interpreting world economic news, analyzing global investment trends, and providing daily market analysis to offer you the latest trading strategy insights and professional investment consulting services to help you reach the peak of financial management.
This article represents personal views only and is for reference only, not as a basis for actual operations. Market conditions are volatile, and profits and losses are at your own risk. For the latest trading strategies, follow the public account: Gu Yue KOL
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