On July 8, 2025, the fifteenth issue of "Trading Star Tuesday" sparked a heated response in the Chinese Web3 community. Host Qie Ge, with his usual relaxed and humorous style, teamed up with Alex from Bifinance, Matthew, co-founder of LYs Lab, Coral, ambassador for Citrea in the Chinese region, and Builder Meg from Shanghai Mankun (Shenzhen) Law Firm, to conduct an in-depth discussion on recent hot topics in the crypto market. This episode focused on three major topics: current market conditions and trends, the U.S. stablecoin bill and U.S. debt tokenization, and the impact of U.S. tariffs. The guests shared professional insights from different perspectives, providing listeners with a multi-dimensional understanding of the macro economy and the crypto market. Below is a summary of the three topics and the guests' insights.
Current Market Conditions and Trends: Volatility and Potential Opportunities
Qie Ge opened by pointing out that the crypto market in 2025 is influenced by events such as the "Great Beautiful Act" and Elon Musk's establishment of the "American Party," leading to a reduction in discussions about the traditional four-year cycle. He believes Bitcoin is in a high-level consolidation phase, with daily fluctuations of only 1,000-2,000 points, while altcoins are generally sluggish, presenting an overall picture of "false prosperity." He invited guests to analyze recent market trends, emphasizing that all statements are for discussion purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.
Lawyer Meg believes the market is in a high-level consolidation phase, and predicting new highs for Bitcoin is difficult, but U.S. policies (such as MicroStrategy's actions) and the integration of traditional finance with blockchain are injecting positive factors into the market. She mentioned the RWA (Real World Assets) projects from Hong Kong and Greenland Group, reflecting a deepening of compliance integration. Meg observed that Bitcoin has strong liquidity, while altcoins are in a bear market, with only early participants in projects like Hyper Liquid. She emphasized the importance of finding projects with product-market fit (PMF), where their token economic models are gradually overlapping with traditional business models, such as Tether's revenue exceeding $15 billion, resembling Web2 companies operating in the Web3 space, indicating a trend of "division and integration" in the market.
Matthew agrees with the view of Bitcoin's high-level consolidation but believes there are potential opportunities among altcoins. He mentioned the "Great Beautiful Act" and the implementation of stablecoin regulations in Hong Kong attracting traditional institutions, suggesting that investors should follow the trend of large capital and pay attention to RWA, U.S. stock tokenization, and the payment sector. He observed that some tokens are accumulating at low levels, seeking breakthroughs, and mentioned rumors about Ethereum's "upgrade," emphasizing the need for continuous research and investment.
Alex analyzed that Bitcoin's market share remains at 60%, with low market volatility making it difficult to break through. He pointed out that after the approval of Bitcoin ETFs, traditional capital prefers high-liquidity assets, leading to a "Bitcoin bull market and altcoin bear market." He suggested following institutional funds to "eat meat and drink soup," believing that this bull market is different from previous ones, requiring a strategy adjustment, and is optimistic about the potential of RWA and the payment sector, but overall recommends a conservative approach.
Coral categorized the market into two types: mainstream altcoins that fluctuate with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and U.S. stocks; and newly listed coins (launched between February and June) that are influenced by market makers and diverge from the overall market trend. She believes the market is highly sensitive to sudden news, and retail investors should "take a little profit and run," noting that 98% of altcoins still follow the overall market, while she is optimistic about the short-term potential of DeFi and stablecoins.
Coral on U.S. Stocks Tokenization added that U.S. stocks tokenization is a transition to "Web 2.5," beneficial in expanding Web3 awareness and attracting new users; however, it is limited in that it does not fundamentally change corporate structures and opaque operations, with some platforms still requiring KYC. She believes the current integration is a compromise but overall beneficial for industry development.
U.S. Stablecoin Bill and U.S. Debt Tokenization: Opportunities and Challenges
Qie Ge raised the question of whether the U.S. stablecoin bill (expected to pass in mid-October) and U.S. debt tokenization can stimulate the economy and drive the bull market in 2025, becoming the focus of discussion. He mentioned the Hong Kong stablecoin bill (effective August 1) and the phenomenon of Wenzhou merchants accepting digital currencies, asking guests for their views on the bill and U.S. debt tokenization.
Meg believes the stablecoin bill is part of Trump's policies, and its effectiveness needs to be validated by the market, but it will have an impact on U.S. debt issues. U.S. debt tokenization will put assets on-chain, expanding the purchasing power of global crypto users, with huge market potential. She predicts that the issuance of stablecoins may trigger a "thousand-coin war," as enterprises, banks, and others can participate, but compliance costs are high (e.g., Hong Kong requires multiple compliance officers). Although RWA is hot, liquidity support is insufficient, and it may face a cooling period in the short term. She cited JD.com and BYD as examples, emphasizing that the success of stablecoins requires strong application scenarios and supply chain reliance.
Alex pointed out that competition for stablecoin licenses in Hong Kong is fierce (with over 40 companies vying for a handful of licenses), and compliance barriers are high. He reviewed historical bull markets, noting that the increase in stablecoin circulation often precedes market movements, but unclear global regulatory policies and differing institutional strategies may lead to capital diversion or risk of defaults. RWA provides convenience for on-chain settlement but requires higher regulation. He believes that stablecoins and tokenization attract Web2 users, but high barriers may hinder newcomers, suggesting observing actual effects.
U.S. Tariffs: Diminished Market Impact and Potential Volatility
Qie Ge noted that while the recent tariff topic is hot, its direct impact on crypto market volatility seems to have diminished, possibly because the market has already digested related expectations. He invited guests to analyze the impact of tariff policies on the market and potential trends.
Matthew believes tariffs are a bargaining chip for Trump aimed at promoting the return of manufacturing, but they do not fundamentally solve the problem and are merely a tool for short-term benefits. He analyzed global trade data, pointing out that tariffs have limited direct impact on financial markets but may provoke friction between Asian countries, creating a "butterfly effect." The impact on the crypto space is uncertain, and he believes that hidden alpha opportunities may exist amid negative expectations, requiring continuous research and investment.
Coral focused on U.S.-EU trade negotiations, noting that the original deadline of July 9 has been extended to August 1, with negotiations involving disputes over a 10% baseline tariff, industry exemptions, and digital services taxes. She believes the market has become "desensitized" to the fluctuations of Trump's policies, with diminished tariff impacts, but the flow of market maker funds may trigger volatility. She suggested paying attention to the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes on July 10 to avoid significant position changes.
Industry Maturity and Future Outlook
Qie Ge concluded by summarizing that the "Great Beautiful Act" aims to curb "pseudo-poverty," encourage elite investment, and meet fiscal demands, emphasizing its controversial nature and Musk's complex attitude. He believes the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut is low, as the previous bull market was rooted in pandemic-related monetary stimulus rather than mere rate cuts. The current market is primarily composed of 500-600 million young people, urging newcomers to fully understand the industry. He encouraged the community to participate in early projects and seize the Web3 wave, using passionate lyrics to inspire listeners to face unknown challenges.
"Trading Star Tuesday" provided a comprehensive analysis of market conditions, policies, and macro trends for the Chinese Web3 community through the in-depth sharing of professional guests, highlighting the industry's transformation from a "trade" to a mature industry. The program calls on investors to maintain a research spirit, focus on compliance and opportunities, and collectively welcome the next wave of Web3.
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