Core Summary

In the early hours of yesterday, after Bitcoin and Ethereum synchronized to reach a peak, they began a continuous decline and corrective trend during the day. Federal Reserve officials released a series of hawkish remarks, greatly cooling the market's interest rate cut expectations. The decline in U.S. stocks directly dragged down the crypto market, with both cryptocurrencies continuing to weaken and slowly drop overnight. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin and Ethereum face pressure from short-term moving averages and the middle band, with insufficient bullish momentum. It is highly likely that they will continue to show weak consolidation during the day, focusing on the breakout of key support and resistance levels, and the battle between bulls and bears will enter a critical stage.

1. Macroeconomic Analysis: Hawkish Signals Pressure Risk Assets Weakening Collectively

Recently, Federal Reserve officials have spoken intensively, consistently emphasizing that interest rate cuts are not advisable until inflation has clearly retreated, and some officials even mentioned that if inflation rebounds, rate hikes would need to be reconsidered, directly extinguishing market accommodation expectations. As a result, the probability of a rate cut in March has fallen to zero, and the probability for June has also been significantly reduced, with the consensus in the market being that high rates will be maintained for a longer period.

Amid rising expectations of tightened macro liquidity, the three major U.S. stock indices have collectively weakened, with the Nasdaq index falling the most. Growth stocks and high-risk assets are under valuation pressure. Bitcoin and Ethereum, as typical risk assets, continue to enhance their correlation with U.S. stocks. Additionally, after this round of peaks, the bullish profit-taking backtracked, and the market lacked new positive stimuli, ultimately resulting in a peak followed by a decline, showing a weak corrective trend, with overall funding sentiment being cautious.

2. Technical Analysis: Both Cryptocurrencies Weak Together, Key Levels Clear

Bitcoin (BTC)

On the daily chart, the price is pressured at the upper and middle bands, with rebound strength significantly limited; the MACD indicator on the 4-hour chart continues to shrink, with bullish momentum gradually exhausting; on the hourly chart, the short-term moving averages have turned downward, forming short-term pressure.

• Short-term support: $66,000 (4-hour middle band), a break below will test $64,500 (daily lower band) strong support.

• Short-term resistance: $68,500, $70,000 integer level.

• Only a strong recovery and breakthrough of resistance levels can break the weak pattern and open up a new round of upward space.

Ethereum (ETH)

Ethereum's movement is highly synchronized with Bitcoin, showing a generally weak operation after a rebound and decline. $2,100 and $2,150 form strong resistance, and although it quickly rebounded to reclaim the $2,000 level after slowly breaking below during the day, it fell back to this area again under weak correction, with fierce contention between bulls and bears.

• Short-term support: $1,950 (4-hour middle band).

• Short-term resistance: $2,050, $2,100.

• All indicators show that there is still a need for consolidation in the short term, with relatively limited rebound strength.

3. Market Outlook

In the short term, Bitcoin and Ethereum will continue to show weak correction and consolidation rhythms, with the core battleground at key support levels.

• If $66,000 (BTC) and $1,950 (ETH) can be effectively defended, both currencies are likely to rebound and gradually test the upside resistance;

• If support levels are broken, prices will further decline, and adjustment space will expand accordingly.

The mid-term trend still requires close tracking of Federal Reserve policy signals and traditional market performance. Before the hawkish tone eases, the crypto market is unlikely to see a strong reversal trend. It is recommended to base operations on key levels, responding cautiously to volatile markets, and avoiding blindly chasing highs or cutting losses, waiting for clear signs of market stabilization before making mid-term arrangements.

This article is exclusively provided by Jayne Crypto (real-time follow on WeChat public account: Jayne Crypto), representing only personal opinions. Due to the timing of article pushes, the above opinions or suggestions may not be timely, for reference only; for more real-time guidance, please contact me!

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