The world is bustling, all for profit; the world is bustling, all for profit to be gained! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focusing on digital currency market analysis, striving to convey the most valuable information about the coin market to the vast number of coin friends. Welcome to all coin friends for your attention and likes, and refuse any market smoke bombs!

Let's talk about the impact of tariffs on the coin circle. The recent fluctuations are largely due to the influence of tariffs. Not only in the coin circle, but also in the U.S. stock market, when the Americans ruled the president’s tariffs illegal, the U.S. stock market saw a downturn that day. However, the stock markets of other countries did not see significant fluctuations, with the impact instead seen in the foreign exchange rates. The appreciation of the CNY is viewed as positive news by many. In this chain of reactions, Lao Cui feels an extreme instability, including this round of rebounds in the coin circle. Most users believe it was the Coinbase earnings report that led to the rebirth of the coin circle. Lao Cui does not think this is a positive path; rather, the platform's connection to the U.S. stock market makes Lao Cui feel the possibility of a shift in the market. USDC is directly linked to the U.S. stock market, which also leads Lao Cui to feel that the market value of stablecoins will experience disruptive growth.

In a previous article, Lao Cui explained that the growth pattern consists of proposing a concept and realizing that concept. The current trend is on the road to realizing the concept, and connecting with the U.S. stock market is an extremely important step. Everyone should clearly understand that this linkage is not a token form on the Binance platform. Instead, it is directly involved with real equity through stablecoins, which also possess fractional capabilities, meaning a single share can be traded, without the previous rigid constraints of the stock market. This greatly empowers stablecoins, giving all countries that can use Coinbase a direct channel to flow into the American market (emphasizing that Coinbase cannot be used domestically). Lao Cui's comments do not involve sensitive matters. The focus remains on finance related to Japan, South Korea, and Europe, enhancing the endorsement of stablecoins, which directly leads to a strong growth in the Ethereum of the coin circle (currently the channel with the most stablecoin usage is Ethereum, followed by SOL).

Concepts and realizations are directly related, but this implementation of the concept can affect the entire operation of the coin circle. The information directly leads to a capital flow back into the coin circle; what you have seen recently regarding ETF inflows is merely a façade. The data Lao Cui sees indicates that since the drop from 120,000, both BlackRock and American pension funds have been in a phase of regular investment. Based on previous estimates, it is likely that more continuously positive news will emerge. The strong injection of funds in the past two days will establish our trend change, consistent with Lao Cui's earlier description of a fluctuation upward. This is reassuring for spot users. Once again emphasizing, there is no new low, only fluctuations above the new low. Additionally, the rise in exchange rates presents a shock to the coin circle, but one must remember that currency is usually linked to national strength, and the appreciation of currency indirectly points out some underlying issues.

One particularly typical point is that it is evident that the strength of the U.S. is indeed in a downward phase. Especially with the recent agreements achieved during the South Korean president's visit to China, the consensus between the German chancellor, and the upcoming American president, each diplomatic event has some concrete strategies being implemented. Whether it is cooperation or resolving conflicts, these are positive signals. Although the accumulation of tariffs is favorable for the coin circle, the cooperation consensus is definitely favorable for the U.S. BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, and even Standard Chartered's predictions for the domestic stock market are all based on optimism; the continued weakening of the dollar, while a strategy of the U.S., has had some effects. More than 25 companies have surpassed the 50 trillion mark, but their subsequent performance appears more lackluster. Lao Cui does not recommend choosing American stocks at this point; given the historically high levels, one may soon face some deep corrections, which will show a completely opposite trend compared to the movements of the coin circle.

The corrections in the coin circle are expected to arrive nearly half a year in advance. This year’s depth of correction is likely to occur in the U.S. stock market. The problems at present are already very prominent, with the employment rate unable to break through while the stock market is performing exceedingly objectively, which defies logic. This issue appears in both parties' data. The difference between the coin circle and the stock market is that the stock market still has indicators like corporate P/E ratios and earnings that can be observed. In contrast, cryptocurrencies can only realize growth or decline through the landing of applications and the alignment with their concepts. The current growth in the coin circle is also due to the expansion of practical applications. The trillion market value of stablecoins is certain to be realized. As for the currencies that compete with stablecoins, their prices are bound to decline. This includes XRP, which was mentioned earlier; its price remains unstable for achieving cross-border payments, which will limit its practical application spread. On quantity, it also does not hold an advantage. Those holding spot can consider clearing after this year's rebound.

The impact of tariffs on the coin circle is seen by Lao Cui as bearish; Trump's retreat has introduced instability into the applications within the coin circle. Increasing tariffs will allow more countries to join the payment system of the coin circle, while reducing tariffs will only make foreign trade more controllable, which is not favorable for the coin circle. Under this strategic influence, combined with the continuing interest rate cuts this year, as well as the easing strategies already implemented by the U.S., and even our own monetary easing conditions, there will not be too much depth in declines for both the stock and coin circles. Especially in the coin circle, this decline has already been sufficient and possesses factors that could once again push towards new highs. There is no need to expect a new round of sharp declines. Currently, apart from the U.S. wanting lower prices and military conflicts, it will not again reach new lows; more radical thoughts, although still in a downward trend, may see the turning point of bull and bear in this round occurring under the linkage of stablecoins and the U.S. stock market—this viewpoint we will revisit at the end of the year.

Lao Cui concluded: The above text is about views on trends, specifically regarding the spot market. In terms of contracts, Ethereum is back above 2000, Bitcoin is running above 67,000, and including Lao Cui's large position in SOL finally breaking the 80 mark; all these breakthroughs have been completed in just two days. The difference between spot and contracts lies here; everyone can also pay attention to on-chain data. The CVDD 90-day history has never dipped below its current indicator, which is around 45,000 for Bitcoin. Each round of bull market rebounds is situated above this data by 30%, coincidentally matching the new low of sixty thousand. For Bitcoin, the new low is confirmed, but the reference for contract users must primarily be based on an upward fluctuation trend. Do not believe in new lows; this is very important. If you still believe in the bearish trend, do not venture into contracts. Under short-term fluctuations, when short-term lows appear, one can go long, such as when Ethereum hits 2000 or even approaches 1950, aiming to capture a short-term rebound of around 30 points. Currently, contracts must control profits and not be overly greedy. If anyone has questions, feel free to ask Lao Cui! Recently, Lao Cui will primarily focus on contracts.

Original content creator WeChat public account: Lao Cui Talks Coins. For help, feel free to contact directly.

Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; skilled players can see five moves, seven moves, or even more than ten moves ahead, while poor players can only see two or three moves. Skilled players consider the overall situation and major trends, not focusing on individual pieces or squares, aiming for the ultimate goal of winning the game. In contrast, poor players will fight for every inch of land, frequently switching between long and short positions, and only competing for short-term gains, often resulting in difficulties.

This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute trading advice. Trade at your own risk!

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