In yesterday's article, I casually responded to the reader's question about "what to invest in".

My answer is to invest in what you understand.

Regarding this question, a reader asked in the comments at the end of the article the day before yesterday: How is the storage sector? Will it rise strongly in the next 5 years?

Due to my job, I paid attention to this sector last year, but I felt that there were too many factors to judge, so I didn't participate in any company or index.

However, my suggestion to interested investors remains to judge with the most fundamental method:

Try to assess or estimate how the free cash flow of this sector will look in the next 5 years?

Or more specifically, how will the total discounted free cash flow of leading companies in this sector (such as Samsung or SK Hynix) look in the next 5 years, longer, or even in a perpetual lifecycle?

Is this discounted price high or low compared to their current market value?

If you encounter any problems during this process, ask AI.

Start with the free version (I think for most ordinary users, the free version is sufficient), and only use the paid version if it's not enough. Keep asking AI, keep thinking, and your final thoughts will definitely be much deeper than before using AI.

Some readers mentioned that everyone already knows this information (about the storage sector).

Actually, I don't think we should pay too much attention to the value of information asymmetry, especially in such large industries.

Being able to judge trends earlier from industry information and getting involved earlier is certainly good.

But being a little late doesn't matter much; what’s more important is whether you, as an investor, understand the things you are investing in and whether you can judge longer-term development.

I have mentioned many times in previous articles that none of my investments has been early; there are always people who get information ahead of me, but it doesn't seem to affect my subsequent operations.

Moreover, even if everyone receives the information at the first time, their judgments about the information can be vastly different.

For instance, I was paying attention to this sector last year, but in the end, I didn't participate, nor did I benefit from it.

Another example: out of the first 100 people who knew about Bitcoin, how many actually made a lot of money from it?

Let me tell you about an instance I paid attention to in the second half of last year: oil.

My attention towards oil was completely a natural thought.

Many readers who follow the investment market have experienced the surge in precious metals and non-ferrous metals (especially copper) last year, especially in the second half of the year.

For this surge, I recognize a very fundamental driving factor: global commodity production began to encounter problems one after another, leading to some supply and demand imbalance. On this basis, with the addition of geopolitical risk, countries began to pay attention to the protection of strategic resources, and thus the prices of various resources are likely to soar.

As a result, rare earths, precious metals, and non-ferrous metals began to take turns rising. However, at the same time, the king of commodities, oil, continued to decline in price in 2025. Meanwhile, various media and experts were pouring cold water on oil, especially emphasizing Goldman Sachs' report.

If the widespread rise in resources is likely a general trend, then why is oil singled out and said not to rise?

The reasons they provided seem very far-fetched to me:

The rise of new energy means the replacement of oil.

Will oil be replaced just because new energy rises?

Will it be replaced in one year, or in five years, ten years, or fifty years?

Furthermore, is oil's role merely as an energy source to burn or generate electricity? What are the basic raw materials for modern chemical and materials industries? Isn't it also oil?

If you ask artificial intelligence again, you will know that in the AI era, with the emergence of new applications and new business forms, the demand for new materials and new devices will surge, all of which will depend on oil.

Lastly, there is a consistently reliable experience: which time has there been a rise in global bulk commodities that excluded oil, the king of commodities?

Interestingly, around November or December last year, an interview covering four top venture capitalists from Silicon Valley was released online, and they surprisingly mentioned in the interview that the rise of new energy would lead to the decline of oil.

Upon hearing that interview, I immediately thought: These people might understand high technology, but their understanding of bulk commodities probably doesn't even match that of certain domestic A-share fund managers who focus on commodities.

The above is merely a theoretical analysis. To further explore my thoughts, I had AI help me calculate quantitatively. The following briefing was analyzed by AI on January 9 of this year:

“

WTI crude oil price is $56.25/barrel

Brent crude oil price is $60/barrel

LME copper price is $12787.5

Gold price is $4420/ounce

Copper price is $12794/ton

Gold-to-oil price ratio calculation formula: gold price per ounce/oil price per barrel: current value is 73.6 ~ 78.5

Copper-to-oil price ratio calculation formula: copper price/oil price: current value is 213 ~ 227

From 2005 to 2026, the historical trend of the gold-to-oil ratio peaked at 47.6 and 70.4, generally between 20 - 40

From 2000 to 2026, the historical trend of the copper-to-oil ratio peaked at 169.52 and 181.35, generally between 100 ~ 150

Whether looking at the gold-to-oil ratio or the copper-to-oil ratio results, oil is very cheap now.

”

Through this thought process, I seriously doubt the predictions of experts.

Oil information is publicly available globally; my access to oil information is no earlier or more extensive than anyone else's, but my conclusions differ from many people in the market at that time.

I believe my judgment is correct.

So I say don't worry too much about information asymmetry, but focus on whether you understand the things you are investing in and whether you can see what others cannot.

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