On February 13, 2026, at 21:30 Beijing time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January 2026 CPI, a data point considered a key coordinate for the path of inflation and a turning point in Federal Reserve policy. Over the past year, inflation has slowly receded from high levels, with the market oscillating between the narrative of the "end of the interest rate hike cycle" and "when to turn to easing," displaying high sensitivity to sentiments betting on slowing inflation and policy changes. Meanwhile, independent institutions like Truflation have indicated a harsher decline in inflation, but this has been marked as a source awaiting verification. The potential deviation between the official CPI and independent indicators is brewing a narrative battle. The data set released tonight not only concerns the Federal Reserve's next steps, but may also redefine the main storyline for global risk assets in 2026, particularly in the crypto market.
Countdown to Data Release: The Window for an Inflation Turning Point
● Timeline and Emotional Landscape: At 21:30 on February 13, the CPI will be released as scheduled, with global macro trading desks, quantitative models, and news algorithms closely monitoring simultaneously. Futures, interest rate swaps, and the forex market often provide their first reactions within milliseconds. For funds betting on the annual interest rate path, this is not a set of "routine monthly data," but rather a key node for verifying the current inflation narrative, adjusting positions, and managing risk exposure. Traders are increasingly opting to lower leverage and control directional exposure before the data, using options and cross-asset hedging to navigate this high uncertainty window.
● Background Trajectory of Inflation Decline: Since inflation peaked in 2022, the overall U.S. CPI has shown a gradual decline, driven by energy price corrections, supply chain repairs, and cooling demand, reducing inflationary pressures marginally. By the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, the market generally believes that price increases have moved away from the earlier "overheated zone," but remain above levels some policymakers expect, thus making the "speed and slope of the decline," rather than a single level, a more crucial observation dimension for interpreting each CPI release. Tonight's data is seen as a key link in verifying whether this slope continues.
● Tone Preset for "Moderate Downward Channel": According to market analysts cited in research briefs, "tonight's data may confirm that inflation has entered a moderate downward channel," reflecting mainstream institutions' tone expectations for this data: it is not a panic descent into deflation, but rather a slow, controlled cooling. Such a scenario is conducive for the Federal Reserve to gradually discuss exiting high interest rate conditions without triggering growth concerns and builds an idealized middle path for asset prices that can "press down inflation without excessively hitting demand"; therefore, any deviation from this preset expectation may be interpreted as amplified changes.
● Signaling Effects of Unexpected Volatility: During this sensitive period for policy shifts, any significant impact of the CPI on the consensus for "moderate downward" — whether inflation rises again or falls at a speed far beyond expectations — could be directly translated by the market into a strong policy signal. If the data is significantly above expectations, interest rate futures and swap markets may quickly compress easing expectations; if noticeably below, it will push the market to reprice the pace of falling funding costs. For readings that are not extreme in themselves, conflicts with preset scenarios may also trigger "amplified reactions" at the pricing level.
Official CPI vs. Truflation: A Dual Narrative
● The Policy Anchor Role of Official CPI: The official CPI released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics serves as a core reference for monetary policy-making and inflation target assessment, with its statistical methods, sampling selection, and release mechanisms having undergone long-term institutional development, possessing irreplaceable authority. Regardless of how the market perceives inflation, FOMC members will use the official statistics as a benchmark in public speeches and internal discussions to assess whether inflation is close to its mid-term target. Thus, the data released tonight at 21:30 will largely determine how decision-makers will phrase and communicate in the coming months.
● The "More Severe Decline" of Independent Indicators like Truflation: Compared to official metrics, independent institutions like Truflation have shown a more pronounced downward trend in inflation based on real-time online prices and alternative data sources, but such data has been explicitly marked as awaiting verification in research briefs. In the absence of complete model disclosures and sampling details, the market tends to view it as a "forward-looking thermometer," rather than a hard constraint that can directly guide policy. Its relatively steep downward curve provides ammunition for the bullish narrative that "inflation has been quickly tamed," but has yet to receive formal endorsement from regulators or central banks.
● Differences Arising from Variances in Definitions and Methods: The potential divergence between official CPI and Truflation largely stems from differences in methodological aspects such as sample range, weight settings, and data frequency. Official statistics generally utilize a broader consumption basket and disclose data on a monthly basis, emphasizing comparability and stability; independent indicators tend to favor high-frequency, online prices and real-time trading data, more sensitively reflecting marginal changes. This coexistence of "slow variables" and "fast variables" allows the official metric to potentially still show moderate inflation at the same time when alternative indicators have captured a more severe decline, leaving considerable room for market interpretation.
● Investor Choices Between Two Narratives: For macro traders and asset allocators, the real challenge tonight is determining whether to place positions on the official benchmark tethered in policy, or on alternative indicators viewed as forward signals. If the official CPI continues to slowly decline while Truflation indicates a faster cooling, a mismatch could arise where "policy remains cautious, and the market is more aggressive" — the former limiting the Federal Reserve's communication and action space, while the latter pushes funds to position for easing trades in advance. If this divergence widens, it will directly affect the interest rate term structure, growth stock valuations, and high volatility asset pricing benchmarks.
Interest Rate Hike or Cut Expectations: Where is the Federal Reserve Pushed?
● Data Points during Key Sensitive Periods: The release of this January CPI data coincides with the market's widespread bets that the Federal Reserve is in a sensitive stage for policy shift, with "when to end high interest rates" and "whether to start a rate cut cycle" becoming core themes of various research reports. At such a moment, even direction changes of 0.1 percentage points in inflation are easily perceived as a "public vote" on the annual interest rate path. Therefore, in the hours following 21:30, from federal funds futures to the Treasury yield curve, a new round of calibration will be conducted around this set of data.
● Imaginative Space under Moderate Decline Scenario: If the data roughly aligns with the "moderate downward channel" judgment, the market will further reinforce the narrative that "inflation is under control, but not stalling," extending the imaginative space for future seasons of slowing interest rate hikes or even turning to rate cuts without specifically betting on any meeting nodes. Such a scenario provides valuation support for growth assets, tech stocks, and long-duration assets, while also empowering funds to gradually increase their exposure to medium and long-term risk assets without having to immediately bet on an aggressive easing path, thus avoiding direct bets against a potentially more cautious Federal Reserve.
● Communication Dilemmas Under Indicator Divergence: Once the divergence between the official CPI and independent indicators like Truflation further widens, the Federal Reserve will face a nuanced dilemma in "choosing which reality to reference." On one hand, the central bank must adhere to the policy framework supported by official statistics to avoid appearing "captured" by market indicators; on the other hand, if alternative data consistently signals a more significant inflation decline, while the official measuring responds slowly, the cautious approach of decision-makers may be interpreted by the market as "lagging" or "overly hawkish," increasing communication costs and heightening the risk of misinterpretation of policies leading to sharp pricing fluctuations.
● Tension Between Policy Language and Data: There may be new tensions between tonight's CPI readings and subsequent FOMC meeting statements and chairman press conferences. If the data shows a moderate decline while policy language still emphasizes "upside inflation risks," the market will interpret this as active suppression of easing expectations; conversely, if more acknowledgment of inflation decline is released in the statement but subsequent data repeatedly fails to deliver, the credibility of forward guidance will be damaged. CPI is no longer just a mechanical metric but the starting point for how the next meeting's language and dot plot will be interpreted. Tonight's readings will be referenced and compared many times for a long time.
Wall Street Bets and Hedges: The Night Before Trading Script
● Atmosphere of Wait-and-See and Tentative Positioning: Before the CPI release, traditional assets and crypto markets generally enter a "low voice volume" mode — trading volumes decrease, and volatility converges, yet implied volatility and options trading subtly increase. Directional heavy trading in stocks and bonds becomes cautious, with more funds choosing to build small-scale exploratory positions, laying plans for both inflation slowdown or unexpected rebounds while maintaining flexible stop-losses and dynamic hedging to quickly adjust position structures within minutes to hours after the data lands.
● Long and Short Scenarios and Risk Hedging Framework: Institutional investors often build long and short combinations around two main narratives: "inflation slowing" and "inflation stubborn." Under the former scenario, there may be an increased allocation to growth stocks, long-term Treasuries, and high-beta assets, while using interest rate swaps and put options to hedge against unexpected short-end rate hikes; under the latter scenario, the focus leans more towards defensive sectors, short-duration bonds, and cash-like assets, while using equity indices and credit derivatives to hedge against systemic risk. As 21:30 approaches, the positioning and hedging intensity of these scenario-based combinations will be continuously adjusted to lock in as much upward elasticity as possible while reducing the destructive power of tail risks.
● "Confirmation Channel" Reshaping Risk Appetite: If the data is interpreted by the market as confirming "inflation has entered a moderate downward channel," it will open greater room for upward revisions in the valuations of growth and high-beta assets. Risk parity portfolios, long-term allocation funds, and certain sovereign institutions may reevaluate their weightings toward technology, innovation, and emerging markets, gradually releasing configuration demands that were previously postponed due to high interest rates. This reshaping of risk appetite will not be completed overnight, but tonight's data will become a crucial footnote in many annual asset allocation reports.
● Importance of Deviations from Relative Expectations: For trading processes that genuinely dominate pricing, the absolute CPI level is often less significant than "deviations from expectations." A set of slightly high but consensus-level inflation data may only trigger short-lived fluctuations; however, if it is significantly above or below market priors, regardless of whether the reading is at historical highs, it will trigger model reevaluations and risk budget rearrangements. The implied volatility reflected in options reveals the price of such "missed expectations," and the first few minutes after 21:30 will be a harsh moment to test who truly understands market expectations and who misreads the narrative.
The Macro Mirror in the Crypto Market: A New Story of Inflation Trading
● Incorporating Crypto Assets into a Macro Allocation Framework: Over the past few years, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have gradually transcended from "marginal speculative assets" to being part of a broader macro asset allocation portfolio and have been seen by some institutions as tools to hedge against fiat currency depreciation and monetary expansion. In phases dominated by high inflation and alternating monetary easing expectations, the price of BTC has repeatedly shown correlations with inflation expectations, real yields, and liquidity indicators, making "inflation trading" an important narrative entry point for traditional macro funds to enter the crypto market.
● The Transmission Chain of Inflation and Policy Expectations: If tonight's CPI strengthens expectations for slowing inflation and policy shift, its impact will not directly influence prices, but will transmit to the crypto market through the chain of U.S. Dollar liquidity and global risk appetite. The cooling of inflation decreases the necessity for the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates in the future, marginally alleviating U.S. Dollar liquidity tightening pressure and pushing the valuation recovery of interest rate-sensitive assets; during this process, some funds may incrementally allocate Bitcoin and other mainstream crypto assets through ETFs, OTC products, or exchange channels, forming an indirect logical closed loop of "macro easing — rising risk appetite — crypto benefiting."
● The Gap Between Historical Patterns and Current Data: Currently, we cannot obtain concrete values corresponding to the on-chain transaction activity, fund flows, or price volatility related to this round of CPI, and can only abstract some patterns based on past market performances following inflation data releases. For instance, in the past, under the combination of "inflation below expectations + rising easing expectations," the crypto market has often amplified fluctuations shortly, then returned to a more moderate upward or oscillating path. However, these historical experiences cannot be mechanically applied to 2026, especially given that the regulatory environment, institutional participation, and market structure have significantly changed.
● Distinguishing Short-term Sentiment from Long-term Pricing: For traders and investors participating in the crypto market, it is more important to consciously differentiate between short-term sentiment games and long-term macro pricing when interpreting price fluctuations. In the hours following the CPI announcement, price movements may be driven more by passive volume, liquidations, and high-frequency orders, rather than a rational digestion of inflation paths and policy prospects; real trends coinciding with macro variables often only gradually reveal themselves over weeks or even months. Mixing these two timelines easily leads to excessively aggressive leverage decisions based on local noise, neglecting the mainlines of long-term allocation and risk management.
After Tonight: Data Settles but Narratives are Far from Over
Looking back from the window of February 13, 2026, the game between official CPI and independent inflation indicators like Truflation will not end with the release of tonight's data, but will continue to shape the multi-layered narratives of asset pricing over the next several quarters. The official figures will continue to dominate the Federal Reserve's policy framework, while alternative indicators will which amplify influence in market sentiment and forward trading. The gaps and convergence between the two will become crucial clues for interpreting future volatility.
Regardless of whether tonight's CPI reading is above or below expectations, the Federal Reserve's subsequent communication strategies — including the strength of expression regarding inflation risks, the way data is interpreted, and ambiguous guidance on future paths — will be the true focal points the market will track next. Data is only the starting point; the discourse framework will determine how the market understands this set of numbers and embeds it into a longer-term asset pricing framework.
For investors, it is particularly important to be cautious about building extreme bets based on single-period data, especially during phases when macro and policy signals are highly complex. Rather than attempting to seize every "data surprise," it is better to establish a more flexible mechanism for rhythm and risk exposure control, utilizing position and leverage management to hedge against inevitable misjudgments rather than relying on a one-off "hitting the direction."
The interaction story between macro and crypto assets will not be conclusively written tonight. As the true direction of inflation paths gradually unfolds, gaps between official and independent data are verified or corrected, and regulatory and institutional participation continues to evolve, this lengthy narrative regarding "currency, risk, and digital assets" will be rewritten repeatedly. CPI is just one chapter, not the final chapter.
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