Recently, Bitcoin's price has broken below the key level suggested in the report dated October 31, 2025, confirming a downward trend. Comparing with historical cycles, the magnitude and rhythm of this pullback closely resemble past bear market phases. The focus of market discussions has shifted from "is the trend reversing?" to "when will the next more favorable allocation window arrive?".
Looking back at this cycle, we identified the starting point of the bull market based on the cycle framework on October 28, 2022, and deduced that the peak of this cycle might reach $125,000 on July 6, 2023. Around the peak periods from late 2024 to October 2025, Bitcoin has repeatedly exhibited characteristics indicating the nearing end of the fifth bull market; with the key levels broken, the market officially enters the confirmation phase of a bear market.
In this context, we assessed the potential low zone corresponding to time and price ranges using several quantitative models, including the one-year moving average, monthly stochastic indicators, and monthly RSI, to determine whether the downward risk has basically cleared and whether the market has begun to accumulate conditions to turn from weak to strong.
After breaking below the one-year moving average, the cycle time frame begins to point to 2026
In November 2025, Bitcoin broke below the one-year moving average. Historical experience shows that this signal often corresponds to the start of a bear market, and past bear market phases usually last about 12 months. Therefore, it is estimated that the next bull market may begin in the fourth quarter of 2026, with the cycle low likely occurring earlier in the third quarter of 2026.
From a broader perspective, we believe that Bitcoin's "four-year cycle" is not primarily driven by block reward halving, but more likely resonates with the rhythm of the U.S. mid-term election cycle. Historical data shows that the mid-term election cycles of 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022, and the upcoming 2026, have all coincided with major bear market phases. Compared to the halving mechanism, the regulatory and political uncertainties brought by mid-term elections can better explain the time distribution of Bitcoin's cycle tops and bottoms.
Technical indicators have not yet reached key thresholds; waiting for "reversal confirmation" is still needed
On the technical side, the monthly stochastic indicator has often completed a bottom after breaking below the 15% "deeply oversold" range in the past five cycles, with an upward reversal occurring within the following 1–3 months, marking the end of the bear market. Currently, this indicator is around 39%, and has not yet reached the key threshold.
Similarly, the monthly RSI usually forms key support around 48 in historical cycles, with the true bottom signal often appearing in the "first breaking below the key level, followed by a turn upward" reversal confirmation phase. Currently, the RSI is around the 50 mark, close to the key range, but there has not yet been a clear "rebound after breaking below" structure.
The two core indicators have not yet provided clear confirmation of a bottom: the market has not shown the corresponding reversal confirmation after the "last concentrated liquidation".
Overall, the ultimate low point of this bear market may not have appeared yet. Historical experience shows that Bitcoin often completes its bottom formation in phases characterized by low trading volume, gradually dissipating selling pressure, and declining market participation, while the rapid pullback accompanied by chain liquidations and increased volume resembles more of a phase of capitulatory selling, rather than the final cycle low.
From the dual perspectives of political cycle frameworks and technical indicators validation, we are more inclined to believe that the window truly worthy of recovery allocation needs to wait for key monthly indicators to reach extreme ranges followed by reversal confirmation. The current price is close to the historical low range, but reversal signals have not yet appeared, and patience is still required in the late phases of the bear market. The premise for orderly recovery allocation is to confirm that the downward momentum has exhausted, rather than simply judging trend reversal based on prices approaching low points.
The above views are partly derived from Matrix on Target, Contact usto obtain the complete report from Matrix on Target.
Disclaimer: The market has risks, investment requires caution. This article does not constitute investment advice. Trading digital assets can carry great risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided herein.
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