On February 12, Eastern Standard Time, the curtains in the meeting room on the second floor of the Washington White House were drawn tightly for three hours. When he came out, Netanyahu's expression was restrained, while Trump's social media account was unusually active—he did not announce an agreement but instead directly called out to Tehran: "Last time they did not sign, they suffered the 'midnight hammer'."
Meanwhile, off the coast of Virginia, the exercise plans for the USS "George H.W. Bush" aircraft carrier were notified to be condensed. Three anonymous Pentagon officials revealed to the media: the second strike group could arrive in the Middle East within two weeks.
This is not a standard deterrent. This is a military countdown laid on the table. And while the diplomats are still wrangling over the next round of negotiation locations, global capital has already voted with its feet—every sawtooth drop after gold broke through $5,100, every wail of 430,000 accounts liquidated when Bitcoin fell below $60,000, all answer the same question: how many assets will this "impossible negotiation" between the US and Iran drag into it?
The Implication of Dual Aircraft Carriers: Pentagon's Two-Week Countdown
● The USS "Lincoln" carrier strike group has been operating in the Middle Eastern waters. Now, the second ship prepared to be dispatched by the Pentagon, led by the "Bush," was originally scheduled to complete a full training cycle in Virginia, but now the exercise subjects may be prematurely terminated.
● The statements leaked by US officials are extremely subtle: orders can be given "within hours," but Trump has not yet formally signed. This is not hesitation but a meticulously calibrated pressure valve—allowing Iran to feel the smoke billowing from the carrier's chimney while not pushing Tehran directly away from the negotiating table.
● Details captured by satellite images are more straightforward than official statements: at Qatar's Al Udeid base, the number of US refueling aircraft increased from 14 in mid-January to 18, the "Patriot" air defense systems were loaded onto trucks, and the RC-135 strategic reconnaissance aircraft have already positioned. This is not a defensive configuration, but a standard prelude to airstrike operations.
● Israel is also synchronously shifting gears. The Ministry of Defense proudly announced that the "David's Sling" system has completed breakthrough testing, and this force, used to intercept medium-range missiles, has obtained new technical parameters; the 38th Division, rebuilt after many years, has officially received its flag, and Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot made it clear: "The maneuverable combat division deep into enemy territory is irreplaceable."
What Tel Aviv wants is not negotiation leverage, but the presence of US forces side by side when acting.
Three Hours of Closed-Door Disagreement: Netanyahu Did Not Convince Trump, but He Did Not Concede
After the White House meeting, the statement from the Israeli Prime Minister's Office was carefully worded—"emphasized Israel's security needs" and "agreed to continue coordination." Trump's remarks were more direct: other than my insistence on talking, no substantive decisions were reached. This exposed an irreconcilable gap between the US and Israel.
● Trump wants a "limited nuclear agreement," and he made it very clear on social media: reaching an agreement is the priority. He even hinted that the ballistic missile issue could be temporarily shelved. For Netanyahu, this is a significant breach of red lines—only restricting the number of centrifuges, not dismantling missile launchers, and continuously disrupting Hezbollah's supply lines is, in Israel's view, not peace, but laying the fuse for the next war.
● Officials on the Israeli side told the media that the government does not expect the US and Iran to reach an agreement. The real task of Netanyahu's visit was to ensure that "after the negotiation failure, the US and Israel must act together"—the effect of a joint strike far outweighs unilateral action.
● So the negotiations are not dead yet, but contingency plans are already in place. US officials privately admit that even when only discussing nuclear issues, they remain "skeptical" about reaching an agreement. This is not diplomatic rhetoric but a preview of a predetermined outcome.
The Chips and Red Lines of Tehran: Only Discuss Nuclear, Not Missiles, Not Regional Proxies
Iran's response is full of alert. The Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Larijani, stated in Doha: the US has not sent any "specific proposals" so far, and the last round of talks in Oman was merely "an information exchange." He also outlined three clear red lines—
● First, uranium enrichment activities will not be zeroed out, the demand for civilian nuclear energy must be met.
● Second, negotiations are limited to nuclear issues, ballistic missile projects and regional proxy forces are off the table.
● Third, if US forces take action, US bases will be legitimate targets.
President Raisi further reiterated in front of the camera that "we do not seek nuclear weapons," but the latter part of the statement is the key: "We will not bow to power."
Iranians understand clearly: Netanyahu is eager to shove the missile issue onto the negotiating agenda, and the purpose is fundamentally not to reach an agreement—experts at the Quincy Institute put it bluntly: this is the most effective "negotiation sabotage tactic": as long as the US insists on terms that Tehran cannot accept, the responsibility for the breakdown naturally falls on Iran, providing a "justification" for military escalation.
Tehran refuses to fall into the trap. But the cost of refusing to fall into the trap is: US aircraft carriers will still come, and Israeli warplanes are still standing by with munitions.
Capital Smell is More Honest than Politicians: Gold, US Dollar, Interest Rate Cut Expectations All Re-evaluated
Stalemate in diplomacy, pain in capital markets first.
● On February 11, gold surged to $5,100 during trading in London before plummeting sharply, while silver also exhibited a roller coaster trend. This is not a victory for risk-averse sentiments, but a repricing of Federal Reserve logic. The US non-farm data released on the same day was particularly eye-catching: 130,000 new jobs were added, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.3%. The job market has not cooled, and inflation is still above the 2% target; on what basis does the Federal Reserve consider rate cuts?
● The numbers from the CME "Fed Watch" tool explain everything: the probability of a rate cut in March has been slashed to 5.9%, and only 20% for April. As rumors spread that hawkish figures like Waller might take control of the Federal Reserve, the market finally reacted—2026 is not 2024, liquidity will only tighten, not loosen.
Investment managers at Janus Henderson stated politely but coldly: "This data supports maintaining interest rates unchanged."
● The direction of global capital flows has thus taken a turn. Dollar arbitrage transactions were closed out, and capital retreated from emerging markets, commodity futures, and highly leveraged assets, flowing back to the US. Cryptocurrencies have become the preferred clean-up target in this round of "de-leveraging"—they are not sanctioned, but rather sold off.
The Dilemma of Bitcoin: It is Not Like Gold, It is Like Tech Stocks
The most ironic scene occurred on the day of the US-Israel leaders' meeting.
● Bitcoin was traded around $67,000, down more than half from its historical peak of $126,000 on October 12, 2025. Just weeks ago, on February 6, $2.069 billion worth of liquidations occurred in a single day, forcing 430,000 investors to close their positions—setting the record for the most severe liquidations this year.
● Grayscale's research report broke through a layer of glass: the price movements of Bitcoin have decoupled from gold and are now closely following software stocks. Bitcoin did not rise when capital flowed into gold, and it fell when tech stocks were sold off. The "digital gold" narrative is collapsing.
● Geopolitical conflicts should have favored safe-haven assets. With storm clouds gathering over Iran, according to the old script, Bitcoin should soar to $80,000 or $100,000. But the reality is that capital has turned to buy real gold, the dollar index, US treasuries, while completely avoiding cryptocurrencies.
● The reasoning is not complicated. When expectations for the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction are established and the global liquidity turning point arrives, the market shows astonishing rationality towards assets that have zero cash flow and rely on incremental funds for survival. ETFs have seen net outflows for four consecutive weeks, with BlackRock's products experiencing $400 million in withdrawals in a single day. Institutions are not lacking faith but are not going against the trend.
● The incident involving the mistaken operation of 620,000 Bitcoins at Bithumb in South Korea resembles a stress test—the market depth has become so fragile that it cannot withstand a single error. Although 99.7% of the assets were recovered, confidence has not been restored.
On-Chain Data Does Not Lie: Leverage is Dead, Retail Investors Are Leaving
The most severe aspect of this bear market is not the decline, but the annihilation of leveraged traders.
● On the night Bitcoin fell below $63,000 on February 6, a large number of accounts with 5-20 times leverage were liquidated within two hours. Asian investors, due to time zone disadvantages, often "silently explode" in their sleep. Some exchanges have been accused of restricting withdrawals and unplugging internet connections, but complaints are drowned in price candlesticks, and no one pays attention.
● Retail sentiment has shifted from anxiety to numbness. AI narratives, humanoid robots, quantum computing—new stories emerge one after another, the crypto space is no longer the only casino for speculative funds. Retail investors are being redirected, and the number of active addresses has fallen back to 2023 levels.
● Long-term holders also cannot hold on any longer. On-chain data shows that the addresses holding for 1-3 years have seen continuous net outflows over the past three months. Those who entered the market during the mid-2024 bull run, with a cost of about $40,000, are now cutting losses above $60,000.
Capital has no memory, but capital will make choices: when Tomahawk missiles may be mounted on launchers, non-interest-bearing digital gold will forever be at the bottom of the priority list of aircraft carrier strike groups.
On February 19, Trump's "Peace Committee" will hold a fundraising event in Washington to rebuild Gaza. On the same day, the "Bush" may have already crossed the Atlantic.
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