Art of Speculation|Jul 24, 2026 07:28
How do you view the current market in terms of options and technical aspects
SPY: 730-731 is the key support, and a weekly level pullback is brewing
Tomorrow's expected change range is upper track 746 and lower track 730.
The area below 730-731 forms a dense support magnet, but the 30 minute chart is currently extremely weak and lacks reversal signals. If Friday's rebound does not trigger a strong short squeeze, it is easy to be rejected by bears to continue to explore after reaching the negative area.
On the macro weekly chart, if it cannot close higher on Friday, the weekly MACD will confirm a cross downward trend, indicating that the long-awaited weekly level correction has officially begun.
However, the long-term trend is still optimistic, and there is still a chance for SPY to reach 800 within the year.
Looking at the finer Gamma structure, negative Gamma is concentrated in the range of 7300 to 7500, and the S&P is relatively more resilient compared to the Nasdaq. Currently, we are looking for Put support around 740, and the next target is 730.
QQ: Read this article (https://(x.com)/ArtofSpecuycky/status/2080354628500328711)
IWM: Weak structure, the weakening trend in August may be confirmed
Tomorrow's expected range of changes is 295 on the upper track and 289 on the lower track. The 1-hour chart has broken the previous higher and lower point structure, and the short-term trend has weakened. The daily chart has formed a quadruple top divergence, with the lowest retracement currently at EMA50 (around 290). If it rebounds to near EMA20 (294.5) to fill the gap, it still tends to fall back at high levels.
Compared to SPY and QQQ, IWM is more sensitive to interest rates. At present, the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds has risen to around 4.7%, and the yield of 30-year US Treasury bonds has been standing at 5% for several consecutive days, reaching a new high since 2007. The high interest rate environment continues to push up financing costs, and a large number of small cap companies rely more on external financing and rolling bond issuance, making them more susceptible to the pressure of high yields. If the yield remains high, even if IWM rebounds with the market, it is likely to encounter resistance and fall back around 295; Once it falls below 290, the weakening trend in August is expected to be further confirmed, and it is currently the weakest technical index among the three major indices.
VIX
On Thursday, VIX briefly broke through 20, and then volatility sellers entered the market to suppress it in the afternoon, ultimately closing at 18.78. The strong negative Gamma exposure around 17 and seller entry indicate that volatility sellers still control the market, and there is a greater possibility that VIX will continue to be suppressed at a low level in the short term. However, we should be wary of seasonal fluctuations: the VIX volatility index will experience seasonal surges in the third quarter (especially in midterm election years), and the market is in a highly sensitive period.
Please refer to the picture of Mr. Heisenberg that was posted this afternoon.
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