The damage caused by the strait blockade to Japan and South Korea has once again been repeated, and the most severe injury in March is that they are still suffering. So it is obvious that in this wave of global storage, the US storage is the most resistant to decline, and neither China nor South Korea can. The difference between China and South Korea is that Chinese technology stocks have started to fluctuate at low levels, while South Korea is still facing a new round of impact from the Middle East. The unexpected decrease in CPI data in July dispelled the expectation of a rate hike in September, but now I no longer have expectations for a continued decline in CPI in September and assume a high probability of a rate hike in September. The expectation of interest rate hikes triggered by high oil prices has led to a strengthening of the US dollar and US Treasury rates, while precious metals and technology stocks have weakened. From a technical perspective, gold and silver already had a certain bottom shape, but now this suppression variable has come again. Even if there is a small rebound in the near future, it feels like we still need one last drop to initiate a significant weekly rebound. On the technology stock side, it cannot be ruled out that there is still a chance for US technology stocks to reach new highs in the second half of the year, but most domestic technology stocks can only see a rebound, with new highs mostly appearing in June. Including Hynix, although its fundamentals are much better than domestic technology, the hype in the second quarter was too severe, and the probability of Hynix reaching a new high in the second half of the year is also quite small. My suggestion for domestic technology stocks is to rebound in the third quarter. If there is a possibility of being trapped in high positions, there may be a chance to escape in September and October. You can pull a Fibonacci wave from the highest point to the lowest point. If weak stocks can rebound to around 38.2%, you have to run, and strong stocks can rebound to 61.8%. The strongest in the segmented track is still semiconductor equipment, and it cannot be ruled out that there will be a new high in the second half of the year. The logic is simple, because domestic AI infrastructure is still being strengthened, including new funds from Changxin Changjiang's IPO financing, which will be used to build factories and buy equipment. After the factory is built, semiconductor materials will also be purchased to conduct advanced packaging testing. Wherever money flows, the segmented sector is strong. Over the past month, a series of healthy financial reports have been released by US technology stocks, including equipment factories, wafer fabs, storage, and AI giants. The explosive growth of Google's cloud business also proves that past investments in AI can generate sufficient commercial returns. The problem with this industry is that new investments are expanding too quickly, which has eroded cash flow and requires giants to issue bonds to solve the funding problem. That is to say, the market is not concerned about past investment returns, but always worries about the returns of future new investments and potential debt risks. The real terminals are still OpenAI and Anthropic. If they have already gone public, any quarterly financial report that falls short of expectations can bring huge distrust votes to the entire industry chain, leading to a sharp drop in the stock price of the entire industry chain. Looking back at the three predictions at the end of June and the beginning of July, the bottom divergence rebound of encryption has been going on for more than 20 days, which can be considered as achieving the prediction. The one month adjustment of technology stocks since late June has also been achieved. However, the reversal of inflation expectations has not led to an upward trend in precious metals, and the current prices are still similar to early July. In the third quarter, various markets lowered their profit expectations. As long as there is profit, it is good to keep the good profits in the first half of the year. Among AI giants, Google performed the best in its last financial report, while the other three may not be as good as Google. So next week, when other companies release their financial reports and capex, we still need to pay attention to whether Microsoft and Amazon's cloud business growth has increased, and whether capex of the three companies will continue to expand or shrink. Any reduction in capex by any company is a bad thing for the industry, as if a wealthy dad is unwilling to spend more money. The macro turning point still depends on when oil prices come down. Just observe these for the next half month. If a rate hike in September is inevitable, perhaps there will be a wave of technological rebound after the rate hike is implemented.