深潮TechFlow|Aug 28, 2026 06:29
[Morgan Stanley: SpaceX $100 Billion Starbase Plans 10 Launch Pads, Target Price Up 118%]
According to Deep Tide TechFlow, citing Tide Research, Morgan Stanley's August 25, 2026 report states that SpaceX has announced a $100 billion Starbase project in Louisiana, planning 5 launch complexes with a total of 10 launch pads. Construction is set to begin in 2027, with the first flight in 2029. SpaceX has currently planned a total of 15 launch pads. Morgan Stanley believes the market has not fully understood the scale of Starship, and even without accounting for the new base, the 2040 launch forecast would only require 8 launch pads to meet demand. Morgan Stanley maintains an overweight rating with a target price of $300, representing a 118% upside from the current $137.
Louisiana has provided a substantial incentive package, with the site chosen for four key reasons: polar orbit access, natural gas supply, political hedging, and government incentives. Starship's payload capacity is more than five times that of Falcon 9 and is fully reusable. Morgan Stanley estimates launch costs will drop to $500/kg by 2030 and below $200/kg by 2035.
In Morgan Stanley's sum-of-the-parts valuation, the Enterprise AI business is valued at $165 per share, while the current stock price implies an extremely low single-digit multiple for this segment. The orbital AI call option is almost priced at zero. SpaceX has completed its final Falcon 9 Starlink launch in Florida, and all future Starlink missions will be carried out by Starship, with each launch offering 25 times the downlink capacity of Falcon 9.
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