Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, and a global food crisis could erupt next year. J.P. Morgan Global Research warns in its report *'Food Security is National Security: A Perfect Storm'* that global food inflation could rise from 2.8% in the first half of 2026 to around 5% in the first half of 2027. The most immediate supply chain risk comes from fertilizers, and a potential strong El Niño could further increase the pressure on crop yields. Before the war, about one-third of the global seaborne fertilizer trade passed through the Strait of Hormuz, including roughly one-third of international urea trade. The Middle East accounts for about 42% of global urea exports and 27% of ammonia exports. Since late February, fertilizer shipments through Hormuz have been in a near standstill. Currently, there is no coordinated international fertilizer reserve system similar to the global oil reserve system. While some countries, producers, and distributors hold inventories, these stocks are scattered across different nations without a unified mechanism for release and allocation, making it difficult to fill the gap caused by prolonged disruptions in Middle Eastern fertilizer exports. Synthetic nitrogen fertilizers support food production that feeds nearly half of the global population, with academic estimates putting the figure at around 48%. If farmers reduce fertilizer use due to shortages or high prices, the next harvests of rice, wheat, and corn will be affected, with the resulting pressure gradually impacting food markets after the harvest. The longer the restrictions on Hormuz persist, the higher the likelihood that farmers will miss critical fertilization windows. Even if the strait reopens later, it won’t make up for the reduced inputs and damaged yields. The impact of Iran’s blockade of Hormuz has gradually shifted from oil and inflation to food issues. @Gate Crypto, U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, Korean stocks, gold, CFDs, prediction markets—all in one platform.