Rocky|Aug 27, 2026 06:48
I waited until Nvidia's financial report was released, but didn't make it to the conference call content! The financial report was released with a drop of 4% at first, and then the conference call was too explosive, causing another 5% drop, with a full 9-point amplitude and a fluctuation of over 450 billion US dollars. It's really exciting! NVDA
There's really nothing to say about the data released in the financial report. Exceeding expectations is already the standard answer, consistent with our early prediction. It's a good news landing and a direct blow!
The reason why the phone call will explode has become a focus of attention on three core points. The first is the Q3 revenue guidance, which has given 108 billion US dollars, excluding the contribution value of the Chinese market. Theoretically, adding this factor, it may exceed 110 billion US dollars. This is in line with the buyer's most optimistic expectation of 110 billion, which is basically in line with the confidence of the institution.
The second is the production capacity of Rubin, which is currently accelerating significantly and will smoothly transition from Blackwell to Vera Rubin cycle. The market's concern about the shortage of new product demand no longer exists, and the impact on gross profit margin is only 1%. The third quarter guidance will be lowered to a gross profit margin of 74%.
The third one is demand. The original words of the conference call were that the management expects Nvidia's CPU revenue to double or more in the 2028 fiscal year. And demand far exceeds production capacity: 'If not restricted, our growth would be much higher'. This is undoubtedly a shot in the arm, directly activating the enthusiasm of the market. And it also revealed that Amazon will significantly purchase 2 million Nvidia GPU products.
It is worth noting that during the conference call, Bank of America Securities raised a question about the $500 billion AI infrastructure and revolving financing, as well as the recent release of OpenAI's Jalateno inference chip, which performs better than Blackwell. I personally think that the CFO of Nvidia is deliberately avoiding it. The answer given is that currently, those "top AI labs (such as OpenAI) lack money and computing power, and we can invest in them in exchange for extremely high equity returns. This is not a left handed strategy, but a long-term strategy.
But from my personal perspective, Nvidia used to only need to sell products, but now they end up doing a tough job, helping customers tackle tough problems such as power shortages, real estate shortages, and funding shortages. Lao Huang is trying to tie the entire AI industry chain to his own chariot. From the perspective of risk control, it means that Nvidia has tied a portion of its credit and asset depreciation risks to itself, causing both prosperity and loss. Although the pattern and grand aspirations are truly remarkable, if they go wrong, it will also be a disaster for the industry!
In summary, this financial report and conference call have basically eliminated all negative speculations. Nvidia's fundamentals are still very strong, and it remains the most profitable and irreplaceable absolute core in the global AI wave. And its finale also provides a firm confidence for the shovel stocks of AI supply chain to continue speculation.
The only hope is not to suck on cryptocurrency funds!
This article is sponsored by @ binancezh, titled 'Binance Buying US Stocks: Global Assets, Zero Second Time Difference, One Click Delivery'!
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