Understanding the market=making money? In recent days, BTC has surged from 64000 to 79000, breaking through 70000, 72000, 75000, 77000, and 79000 in just a few days. As soon as the dial moved, familiar sounds came out. Increased: I've seen this wave a long time ago I didn't buy: I should have bought it at that time Falling: I have long warned of the risks After the market is over, everyone can find their own explanation. But what if we rewind the time by two months? There is a whale address, 0x92ea... 50e9. At the end of May, its account peak reached 42.51 million US dollars. Then in June, they began to retreat all the way. 29.35 million units. Maximum drawdown -30.97%. In June, July, and August, the curve oscillated below the zero axis for a long time. If we only look at the performance of the account during that time, it's really hard to think that this address was "smart". No one in the group mentioned it either. But after the market trend in August, the script suddenly changed. BTC was pulled from 64000 yuan to 79000 yuan, and this address absorbed all the previous withdrawals, resulting in a total profit and loss of+6.27 million U. Then clear the warehouse directly. From a maximum drawdown of -31% to a final drawdown of+6.27 million units. If you only saw this address in June, how would you evaluate it? Most likely, you will feel that it's not working. But after extending the time, the conclusion completely changed. Of course, some people may also say: What does this have to do with ordinary people How do you compare the amount of tens of thousands of US dollars with someone's tens of millions of US dollars? When someone builds a warehouse, you may not even know, but by the time you see any movement on the chain and follow, it may have already risen for a while. This statement is also correct. So when it comes to smart money, I think it's never meant to replicate every transaction. What you should be looking at more is: Why is it moving at this time? What has it experienced before? How does it usually build warehouses? How much drawdown can it withstand? Is this an address moving or is a batch of similar wallets starting to move? These pieces of information are meaningful only when they are put together. After all, it is also a 'buy'. Someone is chasing after the rise. Someone is laying out in advance. Some people only engage in short-term arbitrage. It is difficult to determine which type of transaction it is when looking at it alone. But if you extend an address for several months or even longer, you will gradually see its own trading habits. At this point, smart money is more like a reference point. You don't have to buy it. But you can see what it was doing before the market reached a consensus. Because by the time everyone starts saying 'I saw it a long time ago', it's usually not the earliest time. So what I really want to know now is: If the next market trend hasn't started yet, which addresses are already moving? This question may be more worth considering than finding reasons after the market has emerged.