qinbafrank|Aug 24, 2026 06:04
On August 12th, a live broadcast was held on the planet OKX to summarize the key points of the conversation: 1. SpaceX's fundamentals are very good: Starlink can have hundreds of millions of users in the future, and the fastest data center construction speed and lowest cost are all cash flow businesses. But good business does not necessarily mean there is no supply pressure of chips, and the judgment of mid June is still maintained. In the medium to long term, the best time to build a space warehouse is at the end of the year;
2. The adjustment of the US stock market in July was a reverse stampede caused by high leverage and crowded trading;
3. The core logic of saying that August is the best summer and optimistic about the August market is that deleveraging is almost done, the fundamentals are still very strong, and the benchmark has entered the high cost-effectiveness range. The logic and sectors that are optimistic are here: https://((x.com))/qinba frank/status/2083185986616357116? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A are all chatting;
4. For the judgment that Da Bing will enter the bottom range of high price in mid June, we can gradually build positions and buy https://(((x.com)))/qinbafrank/status/2076212081032856062? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A
For gold, the major buyers are the central banks of various countries and ordinary investors, who are at most considered marginal buyers. At the beginning of this year, the purchasing volume of the People's Bank of China plummeted, with only 1 ton per month at the beginning of the year, and the Polish central bank sold a lot. But in the past two to three months, the central bank has started to purchase gold heavily. The People's Bank of China bought dozens of tons in June, and the Bank of Korea recently announced an increase in gold holdings. In terms of funds, the purchasing power of gold has improved significantly compared to the first half of the year.
5. Optimism does not mean no risk, the risk lies in:
1) The game between the United States and Iran has brought about changes in oil prices, affecting inflation expectations;
2) AI's capital expenditure is increasingly dependent on debt issuance for financing, and treasury bond continues to be over issued, which will drive up the yield of long-term debt;
3) As the noon election approaches, political and policy uncertainty may trigger a risk aversion;
4) Large IPOs or financing will also absorb market liquidity in stages;
Of course, the above are all opinions on August. It is now the end of August, and the market trend from then until before and after the midterm elections can be inferred in yesterday's tweet "Autumn is gradually cooling down": https://(((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2091511833140363356? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A
Thank you @ Mercy_okx @ Haiteng-okx @ okxchinese
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