Iran may be trying to turn Hormuz into a 'de Americanized' waterway Regarding the issue of Iran and Hormuz, I have recently started to lean towards another direction, which is that Iran may not need to restore Hormuz to its pre war state, nor do they need to wait for the United States and Iran to reach a complete agreement before global oil supply can be restored. Iran can selectively open up Hormuz. Ships related to the United States and Israel are not allowed to travel, and some US allies involved in sanctions and military actions are restricted. However, China, India, Iraq, and other countries that have not participated in actions against Iran can continue to enter and exit the Persian Gulf through the new route established by Iran and Oman. There are already some signs emerging in this direction. On August 22nd, Iran approved a special permit for a batch of Iraqi oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has also been discussing temporary safe passage and new shipping management plans with Oman before. If such a system is eventually formed, it may actually be more advantageous for Iran. Before the start of the Hormuz War, nearly 21 million barrels of oil were passed through every day, of which 89% of crude oil and condensate ultimately flowed to Asia, with China, India, Japan, and South Korea accounting for 74%. The United States imports only about 400000 barrels of crude oil and condensate through Hormuz every day, accounting for only 2% of its oil consumption. So from the perspective of physical supply, Hormuz is first and foremost an Asian energy route, and the United States' direct dependence on this route is already very low. This gives Iran a completely different option. Previously, when I thought about Hormuz, there were basically two extremes: either Iran blockades the strait and freezes over 20 million barrels of oil, or the United States forces Iran to reopen and restore freedom of navigation for all countries. But in reality, there is still a lot of space in between. I only recently realized it too! Iran can allow China, India, Iraq, and some Asian and neutral countries to continue to pass through, allowing oil from the Persian Gulf to re-enter the international market, while continuing to restrict the United States, Israel, and some hostile countries. If millions of barrels of oil can be re released every day, the actual supply gap of global oil will rapidly narrow, and a large part of the risk premium of Hormuz in oil prices will also decrease. For Iran, this approach may even be more cost-effective than completely closing Hormuz. A complete shutdown would simultaneously harm China, India, Japan, South Korea, and Gulf countries. The higher the oil price, the greater the pressure on these countries to restore freedom of navigation, which could easily push countries that were not originally involved in the war against Iran. This is also what I have been saying before, that the issue of Hormuz is not a separate problem for the United States, but a global problem. After selective opening, the situation is completely different. China can go, India can go, Iraq can go, the energy pressure in Asia has decreased, and Iran can continue to control ship licenses, route management, and toll collection rights. In this way, Iran still holds onto Hormuz, but there is no need to bear the political pressure that the disappearance of 20 million barrels of oil brings to the global economy every day. And the United States will encounter a rather awkward situation. The United States does not rely much on Hormuz oil domestically, but oil is still priced globally, and its Asian allies such as Japan and South Korea are highly dependent on the energy supply here. If Iran can gradually establish a new set of rules, countries willing to accept Iran Oman shipping rules can go, while countries participating in sanctions and military actions against Iran cannot go. The final formation of Hormuz may be a dual track shipping system. The United States continues to emphasize freedom of navigation and existing international shipping rules, while Iran relies on its control over the northern side of the strait and military security to establish another set of operational licensing systems. Of course, there are still significant obstacles to this plan at present. US sanctions, ship insurance, and international shipping regulations will make ship owners very cautious, and the shipping industry currently believes that some of Iran's proposed fees and management plans are difficult to implement directly. But yesterday Iran issued a special passage permit to Iraqi oil tankers, which indicates that Iran has at least begun to try to differentiate treatment. So my judgment on the future development of Hormuz is starting to change now. But for short selling oil, my confidence is even stronger. Iran may not necessarily have to block Hormuz in the long term. A more valuable outcome for Iran could be gradually turning Hormuz into a "de Americanized" waterway, allowing oil to flow out again, lowering oil prices, and keeping the power to decide who can pass through the strait in their own hands. If we really reach this point in the end, even if the United States and Iran continue to be hostile, the issue of high oil prices may be partially resolved first. Don't let oil prices fall below $70, as long as they can be controlled at around $70 to $75, it can greatly alleviate the global inflation problem caused by rising oil prices. @Gate Crypto、 US stocks, Hong Kong stocks, South Korean stocks, gold CFD、 Predicting one-stop trading in the market