All due respect, I don't think we can make this assumption. The swap agreement has been in place since 2012 and in that time, Australian exports to China became *even more USD dominant*, rising from 93.3% in 2015-16 to 95.9% in 2020-21. Over that same span, while RMB invoiced imports from China rose slightly (2.3% to 4.5%) there was an even larger gain in AUD denominated imports from China. Unfortunately this granular data only goes thru 2021 but the direction of travel is clear. Part of this stickiness is because Australia exports a metric fuckton of metalliferous ore and China buys nearly half of it, and ALL of it is denominated in USD per the Australian authorities. In terms of total trade with ALL partners, 89% of Australian exports are USD denominated along with 57% of their imports as of 2023-24. That is overwhelming dominance by a third party currency. This is a great example of dollar inertia, and of the incumbent power of a dominant vehicle currency like USD. If Australian businesses quote contracts in dollars, hedge commodity prices in dollars, obtain dollar financing, have dollar FX exposure, and participate in markets where everyone else also uses dollars, there is very little incentive to change just because the central bank renewed a 16-year old swap agreement. Australia's govt is probably also not keen to move away from the United States because they are actively working to integrate their defense-industrial base with US/UK via AUKUS (since 2021), including plans to purchase multiple nuclear powered submarines from the US. America supplied approximately 85% of Australia's major arms purchases from 2021-25, making them the US' fifth largest weapons export market over that span, third largest if you count 2016-25. There are currently $25B worth of military sales cases from US->AU. tl;dr Australian trade with China is still, as of the latest observations, overwhelmingly dollar denominated, even as the AUD-RMB swap line has existed since 2012. Meanwhile their defense integration with the United States has grown considerably. I would not personally expect much to change on this front in the foreseeable future.(𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂)