Let's continue talking about pancakes. In just two days, BTC seemed to suddenly wake up from its low volatility hibernation, catapulting from a six character head all the way to nearly 80000. Many people are still immersed in the US stock and AI market, unable to switch channels in time, resulting in countless opportunities to go short and explode. The intraday high is 79500, and the 80000 integer mark is just around the corner. But even if it rises to this point, we still cannot accurately determine whether this is a fierce short-term rebound or a trial before the start of a new bull market. The speed of price increase is sufficient for us to upgrade the market from a "normal rebound" to a "trend reversal attempt"; But whether it can ultimately escalate into a bull market depends on whether spot funds continue to take on after high-level turnover and the first retracement. Looking back now, there were actually many signs before this market trend started. The most intuitive, of course, is the net inflow of spot ETFs for several consecutive days. On August 20th alone, the net inflow of US spot BTC ETFs reached approximately $606 million, the largest single day inflow since May 1st. This round of price increase is not just for the entertainment of the contract market, there are indeed spot funds involved behind it. But what is more interesting than ETF data is the quiet shift of market attention. Since the first storage sector crash in late July, people have been joking that 'if you're hurt in the US stock market, you still have to return to your home market'. After SanDisk once again crashed near 1800, the congestion and difficulty of trading on the popular tracks of the US stock market further increased, and more and more people began to reconsider BTC. This type of public opinion change may seem like a joke, but in reality, it often leads to changes in funding. When storing AI、 Popular tracks in the US stock market such as aerospace have repeatedly experienced sharp rises and falls, and traders' attention and risk budgets will naturally seek new exits. BTC, on the other hand, has been hovering around $62000-67000 for a long time, with low volatility and highly concentrated chips, making it suddenly very cost-effective. At a time when public opinion and chips are ready, all that is needed is a spark to ignite, and Besent's doubling bond purchase better serves as a lighter. In fact, upon careful consideration, the doubling of the Ministry of Finance's purchase of long-term bonds can be said to have little actual improvement in liquidity, and even harmful rather than beneficial, because it seriously undermines fiscal discipline and undermines the already poor reputation of the US dollar. As a result, the US dollar index has indeed weakened significantly. The weak US dollar has been continuously validated in recent years for its positive effects on gold and Bitcoin. Therefore, this round of market trend can be summarized as: Spot funds are responsible for igniting, the Ministry of Finance is responsible for providing macro reasons, bearish consolidation is responsible for accelerating, and bearish and trend funds are responsible for completing the second relay. There may be several ways to proceed next: 1. Following the wave of 73-99k in November 2024, launch directly without looking back, continuously deviate, with high institutional control, shake off all retail investors, pull everyone to FOMO, force everyone to chase after the car, wait until everyone should be on board, and then kill in a wave like 126k. This is the most domineering but also the most cost-effective way to go. Don't give retail investors cheap chips, and then pour them at high prices, and once and for all, the leek roots will be gone The premise of this strong path is that spot ETFs continue to maintain a net inflow of hundreds of millions of dollars per day, and when prices fall, OI decreases and spot stocks continue to take over, quickly digesting the supply of 78-82k. Once the weekly chart stabilizes at 82k, the market will resume trading at 84-88k, and in extreme cases, it can touch 90k. At that time, the probability of "returning to a low starting point and restarting" will significantly decrease, and it is more likely to complete the first major wash off of the bull market above 75k in the future. 2. Fully switch hands between 78-82k, then retrace to 72-75k. Utilize the $80000 integer level to maintain market heat, allowing short selling, new short selling, and long chasing to return together. Utilize PCE, Nvidia's financial reports, or the Jackson Hole Conference to achieve a deleveraging of around 10%. From a time window perspective, the current US Treasury yields are still at a high level, and oil prices have not yet lifted upward pressure. The event density next week is just enough to be utilized. 3. Build a long position around $80000 and then use macroeconomic deterioration to buy back the six digit mark. However, it should be noted that returning to the top 6 is a regular dish wash; Returning to the low 6 sign requires a resonance between the ebb of spot demand and macro bearish sentiment. It also requires a longer preparation window in terms of time. However, overall, changing hands fully between 78-82k and then returning to 72-75k is the benchmark situation, which can be adjusted according to macro and market trends at any time. But regardless of the ups and downs, as long as the volatility rises, the attention of funds will come back, and the cryptocurrency circle will come back to life. This way, everyone will not lack opportunities and will not rush to compete for short-term gains and losses. @BITstocks_CN buys US stocks on BIT, with over 10000 US stocks and ETFs, holding real positions and enjoying dividends.