看不懂的SOL
看不懂的SOL|Aug 20, 2026 12:10
Brothers, the expansion of US Treasury bond buybacks this time seems to be positive on the surface. The long-term interest rate was too high. The Ministry of Finance went out to buy long-term treasury bond, directly reducing the yield of 30-year US bonds from around 5.3%. The US Treasury stopped falling, the US dollar weakened, gold rose, and the US stock market also breathed a sigh of relief. But this cannot be simply understood as' the Ministry of Finance takes action, and all stocks, bonds, and gold take off '. The real point is that repurchasing to lower long-term interest rates does not mean that market risks disappear. Why are long-term interest rates soaring? It's not because of a sudden market downturn, but because investors are starting to reprice the US fiscal deficit, debt supply, inflation stickiness, and Federal Reserve policy uncertainty. The US debt is getting bigger and bigger, and the supply of long-term treasury bond is increasing, so buyers naturally demand higher yields. The Ministry of Finance's expansion of repurchase now is essentially inserting an official buying order into the most vulnerable long end link, cutting off the negative feedback that the market is most concerned about. This is certainly helpful for short-term asset prices. Under interest rates, gold benefits the most directly because it does not earn interest, and the weakening of real interest rates and the US dollar will provide support for it. Public utilities REITs、 The financial sector, which is sensitive to interest rates, will also feel more comfortable than a few days ago. The US stock index is also prone to rebound in the short term, as the market's most feared long-term interest rate is temporarily held down. But why are technology stocks still under pressure? Because AI is not just about looking at interest rates now. The market is beginning to question whether AI capital expenditures can be converted into real profits. Giants continue to invest money in computing power and building data centers, but the investment return cycle is getting longer and longer. Once long-term interest rates remain high, the pressure on discounting future cash flows will increase, and the valuation of technology stocks will naturally be suppressed. So the real logic of this market trend is not "overall positive", but "intensified differentiation". Gold and defensive assets benefit from the decline in interest rates. Technology and growth stocks will continue to be tested by AI investment returns, valuations, and financing costs. Japanese and Korean semiconductors will also be affected by this link, as they not only eat AI orders, but also fear that high global long-term interest rates will pressure valuations. I think the most important thing now is not to chase after any bullish candlestick, but to see if the Ministry of Finance can truly stabilize the long-term interest rate through this repurchase. If the 30-year US Treasury yield only briefly falls and then rebounds, the market will continue to reprice risk assets. Short term is a bottom support. The mid-term is a test. The real answer still depends on whether long-term interest rates will spiral out of control again.
+6
Mentioned
Share To

Timeline

HotFlash

APP

X

Telegram

Facebook

Reddit

CopyLink

Hot Reads