星球日报|Aug 20, 2026 03:25
[Glassnode: Bitcoin Still in 'Capitulation Phase,' Current Rebound Should Be Viewed as a Local Bounce in the Bottoming Process]
Odaily Planet Daily News - The latest report from Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin's on-chain structure remains in the 'capitulation phase.' The cost basis for short-term holders has dropped to approximately $68,500, below the realized market average of around $75,800. Meanwhile, the peak of relative unrealized losses in this cycle is about 25%, significantly lower than the over 60% levels seen in previous capitulation phases. This suggests that the extent of market losses in this cycle is relatively shallow but more dispersed, potentially requiring a longer time to complete the clearing process.
Glassnode also noted that the 90-day moving average of the realized profit/loss ratio currently stands at 0.75. Historically, this metric typically falls below 0.5 before seller exhaustion occurs, indicating that true seller exhaustion has not yet materialized. Furthermore, Glassnode pointed out that until this metric breaks above 2 again, any price rebound should be considered a local bounce rather than a fundamental shift in market trends.
Additionally, the 30-day directional funding rate in the perpetual futures market, which had turned sharply negative during the recent downturn, has now significantly rebounded and returned to positive territory. This indicates that leveraged traders are once again willing to pay premiums to take long positions, reflecting an improvement in speculative risk appetite.
However, in contrast to the improvement in the perpetual futures market, the Coinbase Premium Index remains persistently negative. This suggests that demand in the U.S. spot market has yet to show a meaningful recovery.
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