TraderS | 缺德道人|Aug 19, 2026 17:29
At present, based on the comprehensive situation of all parties, the rapid breakthrough of BTC in the market can only be called a rebound. Whether it will rebound or not still needs to be confirmed by the subsequent market trend. Even if it does rebound, there will often be a cold spring and fluctuations at the beginning of the bull market, so there is no need to worry for those who are short on opportunities. For example, the first reverse transfer window may appear around 3 o'clock. The next big window is at the Jackson Hole Conference on August 26th PCE and August 27th to 29th, and at that time, if Walsh throws an eagle, there will still be a comprehensive pullback.
The rapid rise of Da Bing seems more like a long-term suppression, using low-cost news to push up and burst short positions, so it quickly retraced 2000 points after breaking through the 70000 integer barrier. If the spot market does not follow up after being pulled up, it will be pushed back to its original position. However, since the market has been activated and coupled with a decline in storage, many US stock players may return to their native households, which will amplify the volatility and prolong the oscillation time. Generally speaking, it may last for a week, just in time for the Jackson Hole conference.
If Walsh does not release an eagle this time, this rebound is expected to continue until CLARITY's procedural vote on September 15th during the short-term easing of liquidity.
But overall, this favorable news seems more like a helpless move by Besant to suppress US bond interest rates, and the rise in the big pie can at best be seen as a casual move. However, the rise in BTC prices may stimulate incremental buyers of stablecoin short-term bonds under the GENIUS Act.
Before the Federal Reserve's main tap is turned on, liquidity in the market cannot simultaneously support US stocks, bonds, and the US dollar. So when the US Treasury is high, first limit the Japanese sell-off, provide liquidity through FIMA, and then double the repurchase. Use a combination of punches to buy time and wait for the Federal Reserve's rescue. Let the US dollar serve as the release valve first (last week, the US dollar was weakening with changes in the Fed's bets, and a weak dollar was already what this generation wanted), and then put bonds (backed by buybacks) and stocks last.
And the OI of the big cake did not rise but fell, which seems to be caused by short sellers being forced to replenish and long sellers taking profits. And the funding rate is stable, it seems that no one will continue to chase after the high point.
Conclusion: In the short term (tonight), if there is a pullback around 6.6, then get in the car and take advantage of the heat. If it slowly falls after mid September, don't go up for now and wait until the liquidity bottom in October.
@BITstocks_CN buys US stocks on BIT, with over 10000 US stocks and ETFs, holding real positions and enjoying dividends.
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