𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂|Aug 19, 2026 14:48
I think the gravity is undeniably toward ever more dovish net financing policy because Treasury has no choice. This also means incremental monetary authority leaking out of Fed and toward Treasury over time, possibly even resulting in the Fed losing control of rate policy. But a major crisis of a pandemic/world war degree would probably have to occur to get us to the latter.
I also think it means the marginal dollar of savings and capital will increasingly be compelled by sovereigns to live where they may not prefer to and to endure conditions they might otherwise wish to avoid... because govts have no choice. Two main reasons for this:
1) The location of productive capacity was at one time an economic choice ("who can make this most efficiently?") and is now, thanks to the US-China divorce, increasingly a national security choice ("*who* makes this?"). Supply chains and financial architecture must/will be reconfigured as a matter of sovereignty.
2) The fiscal math for most developed economies is no longer mathing due to demographics and debt burdens (relative to GDP), and younger generations are increasingly restless for change as their social contracts appear broken.
For both of these problems to be addressed would probably require a mobilization of domestic savings and investment that greatly reduces the freedoms they enjoyed under the old status quo. Less of a grand orchestrated plan and more an outcome of changing incentives and political expedience. The most likely release valve from rising populist and geopolitical pressures would be the liquidation of purchasing power for holders of the currency (savers).(𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂)
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