深潮TechFlow
深潮TechFlow|Aug 19, 2026 05:54
[Nomura: Substrate Shipment Value Soars 98% YoY, Supply Shortage to Persist for at Least 2-3 Years] According to Deep Tide TechFlow, citing research from TrendForce, Nomura Securities stated in an August 17 research report that Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry's June production statistics show that the shipment value of rigid module substrates reached 29.1 billion yen, a year-on-year surge of 98%, marking a new record for the second consecutive month. In terms of area, shipment volume increased by 20%, with the average price per square meter rising to 1.429 million yen, up 65% year-on-year, also setting a new high. Nomura believes that the tight supply-demand situation for high-end packaging substrates will be difficult to alleviate in the next 2 to 3 years. Unlike the artificial demand spike in 2022 caused by customer stockpiling, this round of tightness stems from reduced production yields following the transition to larger substrates, coupled with simultaneous demand surges for server CPUs, network switches, and AI accelerators. Nomura predicts that after the mass production of the new EMIB-T technology in the second half of 2027, it will further squeeze the capacity of advanced production lines, and supply-demand balance may not be achieved until after 2028. The industry's top pick is Ibiden, with a Buy rating.
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