qinbafrank
qinbafrank|8月 18, 2026 03:57
Why can the US stock market still reach a new high despite the rise in long-term bond yields to a 20-year high and the continuous increase in fiscal interest payments? Michael Hartnett, Chief Investment Strategist at Bank of America, presented his viewpoint in the latest Flow Show report: it's not that "debt issues are not important," but rather that the market believes policymakers will use higher nominal GDP to digest debt while not allowing the stock market to experience a runaway decline. Bank of America summarizes this belief as: 1) Policy makers hope to solve debt problems through nominal growth; 2) The US stock market is' too big to fail 'in terms of residents' wealth, consumption, pensions, and political support rates; Therefore, as long as the credit market is not broken, investors will continue to buy stocks AI、 Gold and other 'non bond assets'. From a personal perspective, the reasons summarized by Bank of America are only secondary. The primary reason is the rapid development of AI, the soaring demand, and the acceleration of commercialization. Strong fundamentals are the top priority But there is also a sentence worth noting in the Hartnett report: the AI industry may not peak immediately, but the AI financing cycle may expose problems earlier than the AI demand cycle. Hartnett's second noteworthy viewpoint is that political risk will become a core variable in the AI market for the first time. He sees the 2026 US midterm elections, especially the Texas gubernatorial election, as a major watershed for AI assets. Bank of America proposed two scenarios: Scenario 1: The Republican Party retains the Senate, Abbott retains the position of Governor of Texas The construction of AI data center continues to gain a more friendly policy environment. The stock, especially AI assets, may further rise and enter a more obvious foam state in 2027. Scenario 2: The Democratic Party seizes the Senate and defeats Abbott. In this scenario, Bank of America believes that the US stock market may fall by more than 10% by the end of the year, while the US dollar and bond yields may decline. Why is the Texas election so important for AI? Texas already has about 335 data centers, with approximately 247 projects in the planning stage. Bank of America defines the gubernatorial election as a referendum on "cost of living and affordability, or AI data center construction". Residents are increasingly concerned about rising electricity prices, grid reliability, water resource consumption, land and housing costs, tax incentives for data centers, and whether ordinary consumers bear the cost of grid expansion. Public reports indicate that Abbott has taken a de facto pause or cautious attitude towards data center expansion, which Bank of America believes reflects election pressure. This indicates that the AI industry has transitioned from a purely technological issue to a political economy stage. My own feeling is that in this midterm election, AI will be a very important and critical political issue. The Democratic Party can attack two major aspects of the Republican Party: the rising oil prices caused by the Iran conflict and the increasing cost of living for residents caused by the wave of AI data center construction. The negative impact of AI infrastructure may be repeatedly analyzed.
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