The Fed's "higher for longer" stance might be exactly right, according to new San Francisco Fed research. Most officials believe current rates (3.50-3.75%) are already restrictive, cooling the economy to fight inflation. But this paper argues the opposite: using a medium-term "neutral rate" estimate instead of the standard long-run one, policy might still be stimulating growth, not slowing it. If that's true, cutting rates anytime soon could be premature. It's one researcher's analysis rather than an official Fed position, and even he flags that the uncertainty around the estimate is high. Still, it's a good reminder that "neutral rate" isn't some fixed number everyone agrees on. It's a moving target, and how you measure it can flip the entire read on whether policy is tight or loose.(Lark Davis)