This round of dollar decline might suppress the arrival of altcoin season. The market often interprets a weakening dollar as a direct benefit for risk assets, but in reality, there are two completely different economic environments behind a falling dollar. The first is global growth recovery. Manufacturing, trade, credit, and corporate profits outside the U.S. improve simultaneously, and capital flows from dollar assets to global risk assets. This environment is the most favorable for altcoins because altcoins inherently carry attributes of high growth, long duration, and high reliance on financing. The second is the deterioration of U.S. fiscal credibility or policy trustworthiness. The dollar falls, but long-term real interest rates continue to rise. In this scenario, funds tend to buy gold, $BTC, short-duration cash instruments, and assets with pricing power, while avoiding long-term projects lacking cash flow. Dollar down, $BTC up, gold up, altcoins continue to bleed—this is the norm in the second scenario. The bear market of 2022 was driven by dollar strength. Unfortunately, when the dollar starts to tentatively weaken, altcoins may instead face a new deteriorating environment. In this environment, $BTC is treated as a monetary asset, while altcoins are still seen as high-risk tech stocks. This leads to a divergence in valuation drivers, even though both share the crypto label. $BTC benefits from concerns over sovereign credit, while altcoins are suppressed by financing costs and the discounting of future cash flows. In this cycle, the $BTC bull market and the crypto bull market will diverge into two distinct concepts.