qinbafrank|8月 14, 2026 16:09
SanDisk's aggressive guidance this time is mainly based on its NBM, which essentially refers to long-term agreements. Here's a breakdown of the disclosed details of these agreements:
1) Signed long-term agreements with 8 major clients, with the longest agreement lasting up to five years and a weighted average of four years.
2) Capacity coverage under the agreements: About 60% of production capacity for 2027 and 2028.
3) Minimum contract revenue (calculated based on the floor price in the agreements): $93 billion USD. This is the combined minimum expected revenue from all signed NBMs, and actual revenue should be higher.
4) Already secured $16.5 billion USD in deposits.
5) Based on the weighted average of four years and the minimum contract revenue of $93 billion USD, this means the signed agreements will guarantee annual revenue of over $23 billion USD for the next four years (using floor pricing). For comparison, SanDisk's total revenue over the past four quarters was $20 billion USD.
Looking at the core pricing structure within the agreements:
1) Mixed model: Fixed + variable elements.
2) Variable portion: Includes a floor price and a ceiling price.
3) Gross margin expectations: Even at floor pricing, attractive gross margins can still be achieved (management has repeatedly confirmed around 80% non-GAAP gross margin levels). Current overall gross margin is already at 84.6%, and NBM is not a drag.
4) Upside/downside participation: When prices rise, they can partially capture the upside; when prices fall, clients have some protection. Short-term agreements lean more toward fixed pricing, while long-term agreements lean more toward variable pricing.
One investment bank's analysis estimates the floor price at approximately $0.29/GB, which is roughly in line with recent average selling prices (ASP). This suggests the downside is anchored at current economic levels rather than historical cycle lows.
The company also stated that the 75% operating profit projection is calculated based on the minimum pricing in the agreements.
Next steps to watch:
1) For 2027 and 2028, there’s still 40% of production capacity remaining. Can they sign new long-term agreements for this capacity? Each additional agreement would reduce future exposure to price fluctuations. Any capacity not covered by agreements will be subject to spot price volatility.
2) Monitor the execution of these agreements—will they all be fulfilled as planned? Or are there undisclosed hidden clauses?
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