深潮TechFlow
深潮TechFlow|Aug 14, 2026 05:45
[Lumentum's Performance Confirms Ongoing Optical Chip Shortage, Structural Opportunities for Chinese Suppliers] Deep Tide TechFlow reports, according to Tide Research, Nomura Securities' August 12 report indicates that Lumentum's revenue for the June quarter grew 109% year-over-year to $1.01 billion, with component revenue increasing 103% to $649 million. Narrow linewidth laser shipments grew by over 130%, pump laser shipments increased by 80%, and are expected to grow fourfold in the coming quarters. The company holds a 70% to 80% market share in the pump laser sector. The proportion of 200G EML exceeds 25%, and is expected to surpass 50% by mid-2027. OCS shipments doubled, and management has guided triple-digit year-over-year growth for 1QFY27, advancing toward the goal of $400 million in OCS revenue by 2H26. The supply-demand imbalance for EML and CW lasers is unlikely to ease at least through FY26 to FY27. The research report concludes that the technological upgrade path is clear, with NPO expected to be commercialized by late 2027 to 2028, significantly expanding the optical TAM. The global optical chip shortage creates structural opportunities for Chinese manufacturers: Source Photonics is expected to gain global market share in the optical chip sector, with Nomura assigning a neutral rating and a target price of 1,375 yuan (based on 21x 2027 projected EPS). Zhongji Innolight and Hengtong Optic-Electric both received buy ratings, benefiting from the upgrade from 800G to 1.6T, increased silicon photonics penetration, and incremental opportunities from NPO.
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