Here’s a look at the key points we discussed on Thursday: 1) U.S. stocks had already rallied for four consecutive trading days with significant gains, so Wednesday’s pullback was actually quite normal. 2) The key lies in macroeconomics, which has reached a critical juncture. The market’s adjustment is essentially waiting for macro signals to provide direction. 3) Friday’s non-farm payrolls were highly likely to come in below expectations (and it turned out not only below expectations but even negative)—one of the best-case scenarios. Macro has delivered its first positive signal, and we’ve seen how the market responded. 4) One thing is clear: after this earnings season, everyone can see that AI fundamentals are solid. AI commercialization is accelerating, and the timeline for investment returns is becoming visible—even the preliminary ROIC framework can already be calculated. https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2084231327222759656?s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A The past two days’ market movements have basically followed the framework discussed in Thursday’s post. What’s next? Naturally, we’ll be watching whether a new agreement on the Strait of Hormuz is reached and next week’s July CPI data. 1) If the new agreement on the Strait of Hormuz is announced before the July CPI data is released on the 12th, the importance of the CPI data will decrease. Why? Because the July conflict caused oil prices to rise, but if the agreement is finalized, oil prices will drop sharply again. Everyone knows inflation will continue to decline afterward (it’s just a matter of how fast). 2) If the new agreement on the Strait of Hormuz hasn’t been announced by the 12th, then July CPI data meeting or slightly beating expectations will be a positive for the market. Afterward, the market will continue to monitor progress on the new agreement for the Strait. This is the most critical point. From a personal perspective, the probability of Iran and Oman finalizing the new agreement for the Strait is quite high. https://((x.com))/qinbafrank/status/2084834326613840376?s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A This post is sponsored by @bitget_zh: "Bitget - Buy U.S. stocks with instant entry and seamless trading.