Follow-up update: Over the past two days, I’ve continued observing LTH behavior and found the following: 1. The daily transfer volume has started to decrease. It was particularly high on 7/31-8/1 (65k coins), but by 8/3-8/4, it had dropped to 38k coins. However, this is still significantly higher than the usual 10k-15k range. 2. Among these, the amount transferred to exchanges hasn’t shown a significant increase. It seems that the sudden large-scale movement of LTH funds was likely triggered by some unexpected event, such as the coldcard security vulnerability. Most of these moved funds weren’t transferred to exchanges due to risk-averse expectations, so they won’t create significant selling pressure. A small portion, however, might be related to MicroStrategy selling coins again. After all, they’ve started hinting at potentially increasing their selling limit to $5 billion. And they serve as a psychological anchor for many LTHs. At least for now, the market seems capable of absorbing the potential selling pressure from the portion transferred to exchanges, and it’s not enough to break the fragile balance just yet. The accumulation of risk can last for a long time; the key is what kind of external force will trigger it and when. Let’s see if there are any other potential factors that could become the ‘fuse’ to ignite the market.