Bitcoin's implied volatility is sitting at historical lows. Interestingly, September marked the yearly bottom in both 2023 and 2025 for implied vol so I am sure that will make any seasonality tinfoils happy. Obviously in the age of AI and the chip zhupercycle our beloved shitcoin seems long forgotten, but I would like to think vol expands soon(ish). Anything from 30 days out is trading at historical lows, and the model forecast, especially at 60 days, puts a high probability on realized vol expanding. "Up or down" is not really the point here, since you would be buying a straddle or a strangle either way. In the current regime you are more likely to benefit from a move down, since spot-vol correlation has been firmly negative. But if price recovers the early June sell-off you are likely to get paid there too.(Adam)