链研社|AI First🔶💧|Jul 29, 2026 14:13
Always lacking storage, with such good fundamentals and such a low P/E ratio, how could it be trapped? The biggest tuition fee in the market is not knowing how to invest properly
It took me several years to figure out how to invest properly, but when I misread stocks, I ended up ranking lower. I used to think that investment progress was about learning more methods, such as technical analysis, chips, financial reports, value investing, momentum, and wave bands. I wanted to learn everything.
Later, it was discovered that the mature path was exactly the opposite, constantly being deleted.
Delete those without a safety margin, delete those that require predicting tomorrow's stock price, and delete those that require monitoring the market for eight hours. There are fewer and fewer methods, but I am becoming more and more aware of what I am doing. I spent a lot of tuition to figure out this problem.
The most emotional moment of my life was when I went three times long on the cryptocurrency standard in 2022 and was liquidated. The lesson is engraved in the bones, even if you feel that something is already very cheap, stop the loss when it should be, don't carry the order. Lost money, gained memory.
But later it was discovered that the more hidden pitfalls than leverage were investments that went in the right direction but you couldn't hold onto, or investments that you held onto but the fundamentals and market views had changed.
Many people buy Tesla and see a long-term story that others don't have, Robotaxi、Optimus、Physical AI。 If the story comes true, using the framework of an automotive company to value it would certainly underestimate it, but the problem is that we don't know how long we'll have to wait.
When will Robotaxi be commercialized on a large scale? When does Optimus make sense for EPS? 2027? 2030? I don't know
You may be heading in the right direction, but you cannot know how far you are from the answer.
I later came to understand a concept: the shelf life of storytelling. Some assumptions have time, such as the next quarter's financial report, product cycle, and gross profit margin. Every three months, you will receive new evidence, and even if it falls, you know what to wait for.
Some assumptions have no time, and humanoid robots will one day be a huge market, yes, which day? I don't know Every investor has their own real time zone. Talking about long-term investment, I feel anxious when my stock hasn't risen in a year, and start to doubt when it drops by 30%. This doesn't mean there's no discipline, it may just be that the real time zone is different from what you think.
There is another point that many people make mistakes about. The market is a ranking game, not just a valuation game, and the fact that fundamentals have not deteriorated does not mean that rankings have not changed. The fundamentals of A have not deteriorated at all, but if B's expected return suddenly becomes higher, there is no obligation for funds to return to A. A has not deteriorated or even become cheaper, but it is no longer the first place.
Using storage as an example is the best way to understand how difficult it is to double the revenue from storage with such a large volume. There is a limit to the amount of money the market can earn, and on the other hand, there are also software stocks with cheap valuations. So now I often ask, from today on, is it the most worthwhile place among all my choices to put down a dollar.
As for why not directly copy the strategy of the expert, you saw the expert drop by 30% and increase, but did not see that he originally only had a 2% position, no leverage, and had 30% cash on hand. He has been researching this company for ten years.
You still have 25% of your position and leverage. Study for two weeks and increase accordingly. The same thing on the surface is not actually the same transaction, especially this time the storage is easy to get involved, and some people have suffered huge losses.
Never just copy actions, understand the entire system that supports actions.
This is my biggest gain in recent years, starting to know which money shouldn't be earned by me. Some people can make memes, some can take a company with only a ten-year vision for five years, some can make options every day and multiply it many times in a year, which is great, but that may not be my money.
Seeing others earn a lot of opportunities, I no longer rush to ask why I didn't, but can calmly know that it's not my own game. This may be the true sign of maturity.
Later, when I saw a good opportunity, I would ask three questions:
Why this company?
Why now?
Why is this money suitable for me to earn?
The third question has no answer, even if it increases tenfold, I can accept that it's not my money. What the market wants to tell you after spending this tuition fee may be that you should start knowing how to invest appropriately.
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