Three dimensional integrated analysis and prediction of Bitcoin price trend Brothers and sisters, the price of 62.6K is kept, but the rebound is very weak. Before the FOMC decision, neither long nor short dared to make a big move. 1. Quantity and trading volume Daily trading volume: Spot trading volume has shrunk to near the level of the late bear market in 2023, and prices have rebounded but the volume has not increased synchronously. The value of the reduced volume rebound is limited. Four hour long short trading ability: The short trading ability has weakened from strong to weak, and there is no sustainability, which is too bad. Negative review 。 The bullish momentum has turned from weak to strong, giving the bulls a breath of strength, but there has been no sustained attack. Both long and short sides slapped each other, so the price fluctuated narrowly. Short term trend: In the short term, long positions may have a slight advantage, but neither long nor short positions have formed an overwhelming advantage, and they are all evenly matched. 2. Quantity price relationship and structural form Current price key position: Strong resistance 64500-65000, currently around 63800, key support 62500-63000. The price rebounded after receiving buy orders at 62.5K, but a long short conversion pressure band formed around 64357, and when it rebounded to this area, it encountered concentrated selling pressure. The market presents a "staircase downward" structure, with 65500 forming a "triple top" resistance zone. The 62.5K long bearish candlestick confirms support, but the rebound force is weak and the quantity is insufficient, which belongs to the "downward relay" technical repair and is not a trend reversal. The price is at the 0.618 level of Fibonacci retracement, which is neither up nor down, making it awkward for people to take action. It seems that opening long or short positions is not very suitable. Structural judgment: The short-term bearish structure has not changed, 63K is the watershed between long and short positions, and 64.5K is the key level for rebound upgrade. 3. On chain data and market entity behavior Miners hoard (MPI negative value), supply side pressure is controllable. The proportion of LTH transfers to exchanges is 5.1%, approaching the peak in 2020. STH costs 69K to form a pressure wall. In the past 8 days, Giant Whale has increased its net holdings by approximately 19696 BTC and withdrawn $198 million from the exchange, with a medium-term bullish trend. The net inflow of ETF yesterday was only $5 million, which is a drop in the bucket. Order book: The main force sold 1.206 billion yuan in 24 hours, bought 738 million yuan, sold 468 million yuan, and had a net pending order difference of 1.188 billion yuan (positive), so the price rebounded. There is active acceptance below 64K, and hanging orders above 64.5K form a throwing pressure wall. At present, there are no large orders for entrusted buying and selling. On chain judgment: Whale+miners attracting funds (mid-term bullish) vs weak ETF inflows+ETH cost wall+semiconductor crash drag (short-term bearish), the two forces are in opposite directions, and FOMC is the key variable to break the balance. 4. The final core judgment 62.5K support is effective but the rebound volume is insufficient, and bears have an advantage but have not formed an overwhelming advantage. On the chain, there is a differentiation pattern of "smart money raising vs. short-term fund leaving". The FOMC resolution (2:00 am Beijing time on July 30th) is the biggest variable. My personal suggestion is that the best trading strategy is to hold short and wait for the FOMC to land before entering the market. Whoever takes action first will lose first