Short term price trend prediction of Bitcoin: narrow range oscillation accumulating momentum, direction unclear! (1) The Federal Reserve does not raise or lower interest rates, and the hawkish tone of the Bush administration has been set. The expectation of a rate hike in September has been pushed up by the market to 82%. (2) Even with the expectation of a rate hike in September, the price of Bitcoin has not fallen yet. The price has stopped falling and stabilized at the 0.618 level of the Fibonacci retracement shown in the chart below, rebounding weakly to around 64000; (3) Giant Whale continues to raise approximately 66700 BTC and is currently the most steadfast buyer; In recent days, ETF institutions have continued to experience net outflows of funds, and the purchasing power of individual investors has continued to shrink, leaving them with no bullets in their hands. The three forces have different directions and reach a balance point. (4) The long and short positions can be evenly matched, but the long and short positions lack sustained strength, and no one can control anyone. The market is in a stalemate in the short term. (5) Macro events determine direction. This week is a macro super week, with big variables every day. Thursday (tonight) Core PCE: Expected 2.8%, previously 2.9%. This is the first inflation data after the FOMC, which will validate Walsh's judgment that 'inflation is far from resolved'. If PCE exceeds expectations and the expectation of a September interest rate hike continues to rise, BTC may test another 63K or even 62K. (6) Friday: Approximately $13-14 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options expire. Redeployment of positions after expiration may result in short-term fluctuations. My core judgment: The most likely path for Bitcoin price trend this week, with a probability of about 55%: Continue to oscillate narrowly around 64K, waiting for PCE data to land. If PCE meets expectations or is slightly lower, BTC may rebound slightly to test 65000-65500; If it exceeds expectations, retrace to 63K or even 62K. After the option expires on Friday, the market may choose direction. The BTC price fluctuation is so small, I don't have the passion and desire to open a position. I'll hold my position and wait. Empty positions are also a strategy. What do you think?